5710 Winner Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$153,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 5,998 sqft lot Est $294k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod offers a functional layout and the opportunity to update and customize to your preferences. The home features a traditional design with comfortable living space and well-sized bedrooms. As a single-family property, it provides added privacy along with a rear parking pad for convenient off-street parking. With cosmetic updates, this home offers a great opportunity to create a personalized space while adding value. Located in a convenient area with access to local amenities and commuter routes. Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities!

Key facts

• Rear parking pad
• Commuter routes
• 5,998 sq ft lot

Tags

• REAR PARKING PAD
• ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• COMMUTER ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5802 Bland Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,251 (-10%)	4mo	$192,500	$154	70
5309 Ethelbert Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	6mo	$240,000	$171	67
2803 Manhattan Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-6%)	4mo	$376,000	$289	64
3312 Glen Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+14%)	5mo	$280,000	$176	56
5911 Winner Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,520 (+9%)	10mo	$359,900	$237	56
3414 Rockwood Ave	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,452 (+4%)	16mo	$319,900	$220	56
3402 Parkington Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-8%)	13mo	$300,000	$234	52
5715 Rusk Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-5%)	14mo	$440,000	$333	52
4003 Glen Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-1%)	10mo	$150,000	$109	52
3813 Glen Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,302 (-6%)	3mo	$275,000	$211	51
5222 Cuthbert Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,455 (+4%)	17mo	$215,000	$148	41
3300 Parkington Ave	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,556 (+12%)	17mo	$310,000	$199	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,704
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,921
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,893/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $248	+0% $204	+5% $161	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $135	+0% $204	+5% $274	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $243	base $204	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.32mi
5301 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	44d	1	0.37mi
2900 Taney Rd Apt 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.56mi
5343 Nelson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	24d	1	0.58mi
2432 Everton Rd Unit 2435 A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.61mi
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	44d	1	0.62mi
5801 Western Run Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,979	$2.37	3d	7	0.66mi
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	44d	1	0.66mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.79mi
6317 Pearce Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	0.79mi
2310 Sulgrave Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	978	$1,700	$1.74	44d	1	0.90mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	0.90mi
3638 Fords Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,795	$1.79	44d	1	0.96mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	0.98mi
6310 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1080	$1,940	$1.80	3d	6	0.98mi
3301 Clarks Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	801	$1,345	$1.68	3d	10	1.00mi
3505 Clarks Ln Unit D2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	44d	1	1.05mi
3705 Midheights Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,900	$1.86	24d	1	1.07mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	1.16mi
3809 Clarks Ln Unit 301 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,600	$1.51	24d	1	1.18mi
3607 Labyrinth Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,100	$2.27	20d	5	1.23mi
3002 Fallstaff Manor Ct Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,879	$2.32	3d	10	1.25mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.28mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	940	$1,709	$1.82	2d	1	1.30mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,724	$1.96	5d	1	1.30mi
4714 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	44d	1	1.33mi
2824 Edgecombe Cir S Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	22d	1	1.37mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	1.38mi
6624 Chippewa Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1514	$2,400	$1.59	24d	1	1.43mi
2454 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $153,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,893 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,893 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$3,893
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,893 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.