4814 Firnat St · Houston, TX 77016

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 241 Days on market

Built 1950 7,348 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is an investor gem, the property is definitely a tear down but all utilities are available, take a drive by and see just how you can turn it into a masterpiece BACK ON THE MARKET LAST BUYERS FELL THROUGH THIS IS NOT A LOT VALUE LISTING/SALE

Key facts

• 7,348 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 241 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cook Jr El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 519 students, 96% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $80k implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.80%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,798
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4814 Firnat St	0.00mi	3/1.0	866 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$92	99
5118 Firnat St	0.21mi	3/1.0	944 (+9%)	2mo	$95,000	$101	74
8714 Autumn Ln	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-0%)	7mo	$169,000	$196	71
5019 Antha St	0.39mi	3/1.0	888 (+2%)	22mo	$196,999	$222	60
9401 Heatherside St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	976 (+13%)	4mo	$89,000	$91	55
3809 Turner Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	825 (-5%)	6mo	$195,000	$236	50
9318 Bertwood St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	845 (-2%)	13mo	$129,999	$154	50
5011 Jones St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	814 (-6%)	12mo	$165,000	$203	49
5713 Rietta St	0.58mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$204,500	$213	48
5715 Rietta St	0.58mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	7mo	$204,500	$213	45
4825 Weaver Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-10%)	4mo	$125,000	$160	42
8717 Peachtree St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	977 (+13%)	22mo	$210,000	$215	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $57,914
• Equity at exit: $64,342

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $144,103
• Equity at exit: $131,276

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $411	+0% $388	+5% $366	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $338	+0% $388	+5% $438	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $409	base $388	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	1d	1	0.39mi
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	45d	1	0.39mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	26d	1	0.71mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	7d	1	0.71mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	0.71mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	45d	1	0.75mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	26d	1	0.80mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	45d	1	0.85mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.32mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.32mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   status Active
3. 2025-12-25
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-06
   price $80,000
6. 2025-08-13
   price $85,000
7. 2025-06-27
   listed $89,000 Active
8. 1996-09-27
   soldstatus $17,556
9. 1996-09-27
   soldstatus $91,770
10. 1996-09-27
    soldstatus $367,275
11. 1996-09-25
    soldstatus $17,556

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,905 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,905 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $3,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+355.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 1996-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $367,275 Public Records
• 1996-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $91,770 Public Records
• 1996-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $17,556 Public Records
• 1996-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $17,556 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,905 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.