2770 Goat Hill Rd · Lakehills, TX 78063

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 888 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tons of fun was had in this lake area fixer upper & could be again! Priced to sell, well below county tax appraisal, due to condition. Very near Medina Lake with access at community park. Lot is heavily wooded with mature trees. Home has a couple of additions, wood stove, wooden back deck, propane tank. Fenced corner lot, large shop/garage, storage building, well house, covered motorcycle parking. Needs imagination & elbow grease. Everything on the lot & inside home convey except boat & boat trailer.

Key facts

• Storage buildings
• Surrounded by trees
• Natural retreat

Tags

• NATURAL RETREAT
• SURROUNDED BY TREES
• BLOCKS AWAY FROM MEDINA LAKE
• MULTIPLE STRUCTURES ON SITE
• STORAGE BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 1970; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (10 x 14); First-floor bedroom (12 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Total of 2 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill Country El (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 483 students, 62% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,403
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,983
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
955 Faurie Rd Lakehills, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	1d	1	0.40mi
707 Faurie Rd Lakehills, TX	1.0	1.0	910	$1,200	$1.32	1d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 297-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $129,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,607/yr (+$134/mo · 213.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $2,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+416.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Rental Removed $600 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $600 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $600 HARMLS
• 2024-11-03 Listed for Rent $600 HARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Rental Removed $450 HARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $450 HARMLS
• 2024-05-26 Listed for Rent $500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Rental Removed $400 HARMLS
• 2023-12-23 Listed for Rent $400 HARMLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-01-30 Pending — LERA
• 2018-01-03 Contingent — LERA
• 2017-12-28 Listed $25,000 LERA
• 2012-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.