425 N CR 2900 · Lubbock, TX 79403

$98,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1966 2.15 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your little bit of country awaits! Just minutes outside of Lubbock sitting on 2 acres! Three bedroom and two full baths. Two living areas. Well planned kitchen with adjacent dining area. Separate utility room. Well and septic. Roosevelt ISD. Original hardwood flooring. Bring your touches to make this your own!

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Roosevelt isd
• 2 acres

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• ROOSEVELT ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #553 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roosevelt El (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 536 students, 76% FRL); Roosevelt J H (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 289 students, 74% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 350 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $680 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,448 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.81%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,333
• Equity at exit: $14,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $20,398
• Equity at exit: $8,508

Cash invested: $27,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$516
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,323/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $98,400

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,600
• Closing costs: $2,952
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $98,400 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $98,400 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $98,400 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-23
   price $98,400
6. 2025-12-19
   status Active
7. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-05
   listed $123,000 Active
9. 2025-11-04
   soldstatus
10. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus
11. 2005-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,512
• − Property taxes: −$2,323
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$2,863
• Taxable income: $2,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837800
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 28.63/100
• National rank: #6707
• State rank: #553 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $98,400 LARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $123,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,323 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.