101 Citrus Ridge Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$95,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 478 sqft · Manufactured public records · 346 Days on market

Built 1988 2,400 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Citrus Ridge, a charming 55+ community located in Davenport, and close to all the attractions and I-4! This is NOT lot rent - you own the land! This home has had some recent updates and is ready for its new owners! NO polybutylene piping--- the home was completely repiped! The floors are super solid as well! The home just needs your finishing touches on design, but is move-in ready as is as well! Driving to the property, you'll notice the oversized parking pad that can comfortably fit two vehicles. A front porch greets you, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee on. When you enter the home, you'll enter the kitchen and dining room. There is eating space in the kitchen, and

Key facts

• Front porch
• Completely repiped
• You own the land

Tags

• YOU OWN THE LAND
• COMPLETELY REPIPED
• OVERSIZED PARKING PAD
• FRONT PORCH
• EATING SPACE IN KITCHEN
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Third-party listing contact available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Citrus Ridge Neighborhood Association with annual fee ($1,000) — monthly equivalent $83.33; Association approval required; Association fee covers pool, grounds maintenance, management and private road; Community pool; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with max pet weight ~30 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt-paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated building area ~850 square feet; Estimated living area ~828 square feet; Built on a 40 x 60 lot (approximately 0.06 acres)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $95k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.04%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,602
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $27,330
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,345/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43420 US-27 Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$950	$3.17	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 341 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 338 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 337 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 336 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 330 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 328 DOM
14. 2025-12-01
    price $95,000
15. 2025-12-01
    status Active
16. 2025-11-30
    historical
17. 2025-10-01
    status Active
18. 2025-09-30
    historical
19. 2025-09-11
    status Active
20. 2025-08-31
    historical
21. 2025-06-24
    listed $105,000 Active
22. 2025-05-22
    historical
23. 2025-01-07
    listed $105,000 Active
24. 1997-12-16
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,345
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $4,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+239.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,345 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.