965 W Milton St · Tucson, AZ 85706

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1952 8,407 sqft lot Est $247k · 39% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath property on a huge lot presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to customize a home to their taste. The layout is functional and spacious, and with renovation and updating, it has the potential to shine. Ideal for investors or anyone seeking a project, this home is offered as-is and awaits its next chapter. SPDS and not available. This sale is subject to court approval.

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 173 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Slump block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Corner lot; North/South exposure; Paved road; City-maintained road; Sidewalks

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (natural gas); Wall cooling unit(s); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Gas hookup available; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mission Manor Elementary School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 499 students, 80% FRL); Apollo Middle School (math 6% / reading 8%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 537 students, 88% FRL); Sunnyside High School (math 8% / reading 10%, grade F, #356 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 2,204 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 56% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,636
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
965 W Milton St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,116 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$134	100
862 W Hawaii Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-5%)	1mo	$240,000	$225	71
815 W Hawaii Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,133 (+2%)	8mo	$215,000	$190	69
950 W Calle Evelina	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-5%)	3mo	$228,500	$215	67
809 W Milton St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-10%)	3mo	$171,500	$170	66
950 W Virginia St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+9%)	7mo	$270,000	$221	60
5418 S Oregon Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-5%)	8mo	$165,500	$156	60
5525 S Alaska Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,016 (-9%)	1mo	$269,900	$266	59
632 W Calle Garcia	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$216	58
5932 S Liberty Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+7%)	4mo	$275,000	$230	50
938 W Connecticut Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	988 (-12%)	1mo	$255,000	$258	47
5456 S Canada Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	954 (-14%)	6mo	$235,000	$246	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,139
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,635
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85706

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $248	+0% $206	+5% $163	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $148	+0% $206	+5% $264	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $244	base $206	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 W Milton St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,695	$1.31	44d	1	0.10mi
842 W Calle Ramona Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	828	$1,200	$1.45	3d	1	0.18mi
734 W Holladay Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1216	$1,595	$1.31	24d	1	0.38mi
5950 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,495	$1.38	22d	1	0.77mi
6027 S Lostan Ave Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1377	$1,695	$1.23	15d	1	0.79mi
5600 S Midvale Park Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,199	$1.52	2d	12	0.81mi
1616 W Wood Crest Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,650	$1.27	4d	1	0.81mi
1594 W Swisher Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,695	$1.46	44d	1	0.87mi
1483 W Flannery Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,695	$1.23	12d	1	0.87mi
410 W Calle Antonia Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	987	$1,495	$1.51	44d	1	0.87mi
5664 S Wood Crest Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,150	$1.13	4d	1	0.89mi
5664 S Wood Crest Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.89mi
1668 W Park Wood Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1019	$995	$0.98	24d	1	0.91mi
1686 W Wood Bridge Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,400	$1.07	44d	1	0.94mi
5144 S 11th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	22d	1	0.95mi
1710 W Wood Bridge Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,000	$0.99	4d	1	0.96mi
6250 S Commerce Ct Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	726	$1,413	$1.94	2d	9	1.00mi
718 W Louisiana St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	968	$1,475	$1.52	21d	1	1.02mi
334 W Valencia Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,399	$1.75	24d	2	1.05mi
252 W Valencia Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	626	$1,049	$1.67	44d	3	1.13mi
4904 S 13th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	4d	1	1.17mi
208 E Delta Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	44d	1	1.21mi
6060 S Moorheart Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	1.23mi
175 W Valencia Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,426	$2.04	2d	72	1.24mi
6082 S Birchwood Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,745	$1.26	4d	1	1.31mi
1950 W Burgundy Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	20d	1	1.36mi
1950 W Burgundy Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	1.36mi
4842 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	17d	1	1.37mi
5505 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,558	$1.64	2d	29	1.39mi
221 E Olive St Unit 1201 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$925	$1.28	4d	1	1.44mi
221 E Olive St Apt 2202 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$925	$1.28	44d	1	1.44mi
221 E Olive St Unit 2102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$900	$1.24	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $150,000 Pending 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active Contingent 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active Contingent 172 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active Contingent 171 DOM
5. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Contingent
6. 2026-04-12
   price $150,000
7. 2026-02-05
   price $175,000
8. 2026-01-06
   price $199,999
9. 2025-12-11
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $20
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,236
• Household income: $50,248
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1926.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 36% White 10% Native American 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.59%
• Current HPI: 376.8462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-30.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $199,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-11 Listed $215,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,168 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.