433 Capricorn Dr · Granbury, TX 76049

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1984 6,882 sqft lot $117/sqft · 6% above area Est $117k · 6% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers! This updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a functional open-concept layout that makes the most of the living space, creating a comfortable and inviting atmosphere. The property features a large yard with plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, along with ample parking to accommodate multiple vehicles. Located in the quiet Sky Harbour Subdivision, you’ll enjoy a more peaceful setting while still being just a short drive from Historic Downtown Granbury and Lake Granbury for shopping, dining, and recreation. Previously rented for 1,350 per month, this home offers strong potential as an income-producing property or a great option for those looking to step into homeownership.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Large yard
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE YARD
• AMPLE PARKING
• SKY HARBOUR SUBDIVISION
• SHORT DRIVE TO LAKE GRANBURY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.73%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,390
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 6.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $26,087
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $94,749
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $125,000 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers! This updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a functional open-concept layout that makes the most of the living space, creating a comfortable and inviting atmosphere. The property features a large yard with plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, along with ample parking to accommodate multiple vehicles. Located in the quiet Sky Harbour Subdivision, you’ll enjoy a more peaceful setting while still being just a short drive from Historic Downtown Granbury and Lake Granbury for shopping, dining, and recreation. Previously rented for 1,350 per month, this home offers strong potential as an income-producing property or a great option for those looking to step into homeownership.

15. 2026-04-09
    listed $130,000 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers! This updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a functional open-concept layout that makes the most of the living space, creating a comfortable and inviting atmosphere. The property features a large yard with plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, along with ample parking to accommodate multiple vehicles. Located in the quiet Sky Harbour Subdivision, you’ll enjoy a more peaceful setting while still being just a short drive from Historic Downtown Granbury and Lake Granbury for shopping, dining, and recreation. Previously rented for 1,350 per month, this home offers strong potential as an income-producing property or a great option for those looking to step into homeownership.

16. 2025-08-31
    historical
17. 2024-11-21
    listed $159,000 Active
18. 2024-05-01
    soldstatus
19. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2024-04-17
    status Pending
21. 2024-04-12
    listed $65,000 Active
22. 2021-03-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,611/yr (+$134/mo · 238.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $6,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2021-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +41.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.