121 Circle Dr · Mathews, VA 23138

$240,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1959 $107/sqft · 31% below area Est $349k · 31% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ranch-style home features a functional single-level layout with solid bones and potential. The property offers convenient one-floor living in a classic design that provides comfortable spaces. The substantial 3.26 acre lot size creates numerous opportunities for expansion, additional structures, or simply enjoying the freedom of rural living.

Key facts

• 3.26 acre lot size
• Rural living
• Single-level layout

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• 3.26 ACRE LOT SIZE
• RURAL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Thomas Hunter Middle (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 283 students, 73% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,411 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,000
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -31.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Circle Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,128 (-5%)	6mo	$329,000	$155	75
901 Circle Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,444 (+9%)	4mo	$550,000	$225	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-21,756
• Equity at exit: $80,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,082
• Equity at exit: $105,118

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23138

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $171,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-320	+0% $-388	+5% $-456	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-539	-5% $-464	+0% $-388	+5% $-313	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-267	-0.5pp $-327	base $-388	+0.5pp $-450	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $240,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   price $240,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,600 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,600 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-13
    days on market $292,600 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-12
    pricedays on market $292,600 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-09
    days on market $308,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,000 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,000 Active 59 DOM
20. 2026-04-02
    listed $308,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This ranch-style home features a functional single-level layout with solid bones and potential. The property offers convenient one-floor living in a classic design that provides comfortable spaces. The substantial 3.26 acre lot size creates numerous opportunities for expansion, additional structures, or simply enjoying the freedom of rural living.

21. 2026-01-12
    historical
22. 2025-11-06
    listed $350,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$6,319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 1,066

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 140.0722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $308,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $350,500 REINMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +503.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.