2627 Stevens St · Houston, TX 77026

$199,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 1940 5,950 sqft lot $109/sqft · 33% below area Est $299k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE BRICK HOME! Welcome to this charming brick home brimming with potential, situated on a spacious 5,950 sq. ft. lot in a tranquil North Houston neighborhood. With its vintage charm and ample space for renovation and updating, this property offers the perfect canvas for creating your dream home. Enjoy the peace and quiet of the neighborhood while still being just a short drive away from downtown Houston, where you can indulge in all the city has to offer. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this delightful residence your own oasis in the heart of Houston. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Vintage charm
• Spacious lot
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD
• VINTAGE CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sherman El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 528 students, 99% FRL); Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,302
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -33.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2814 Elysian St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-2%)	0mo	$195,000	$108	72
1913 West St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-4%)	0mo	$387,000	$221	68
2906 Brackenridge St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$153	65
2704 Jensen Creek Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-13%)	3mo	$299,900	$189	63
3109 Jensen Dr Unit A	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-15%)	0mo	$319,900	$205	62
3202 Quitman St	0.46mi	3/3.5	1,700 (-7%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	60
1715 Mary St	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,877 (+3%)	2mo	$369,900	$197	58
1717 Mary St	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,877 (+3%)	3mo	$369,900	$197	58
2814 Mills St	0.65mi	3/3.5	1,972 (+8%)	1mo	$389,900	$198	52
2812 Mills St	0.66mi	3/3.5	1,972 (+8%)	1mo	$369,900	$188	51
2804 Mills St	0.65mi	3/3.5	2,039 (+11%)	1mo	$379,000	$186	46
2808 Mills St	0.66mi	3/3.5	2,039 (+11%)	1mo	$359,000	$176	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $49,535
• Equity at exit: $100,151

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $143,511
• Equity at exit: $162,815

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,250/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $301	+0% $244	+5% $188	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $158	+0% $244	+5% $331	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $295	base $244	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	22d	1	0.72mi
2013 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1888	$2,600	$1.38	0d	1	0.88mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	46d	1	0.91mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	46d	1	0.98mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	46d	1	0.99mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	10d	1	1.04mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	46d	1	1.05mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	24d	1	1.17mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	46d	1	1.18mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	1d	15	1.19mi
2403 Everett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2093	$2,800	$1.34	46d	1	1.19mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	14d	1	1.21mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	46d	1	1.28mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$2,922	$1.47	1d	1	1.32mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	0d	40	1.35mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$5,668	$3.56	1d	1	1.36mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	46d	1	1.36mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	46d	1	1.37mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	23d	1	1.42mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	23d	1	1.42mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	46d	1	1.42mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	46d	1	1.43mi
207 Carl St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1230	$2,250	$1.83	46d	1	1.45mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	46d	1	1.45mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	46d	1	1.45mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	46d	1	1.47mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	10d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 339 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 338 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 337 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 321 DOM
13. 2025-07-14
    listed $199,999 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    NICE BRICK HOME! Welcome to this charming brick home brimming with potential, situated on a spacious 5,950 sq. ft. lot in a tranquil North Houston neighborhood. With its vintage charm and ample space for renovation and updating, this property offers the perfect canvas for creating your dream home. Enjoy the peace and quiet of the neighborhood while still being just a short drive away from downtown Houston, where you can indulge in all the city has to offer. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this delightful residence your own oasis in the heart of Houston. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,250
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,250 · +41.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.