46308 Baker Loop Rd · Concrete, WA 98237

$219,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1972 0.50 ac lot $218/sqft · 30% below area Est $316k · 30% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a fantastic investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom rambler sits on a level half-acre lot and is ready for your vision and renovation expertise. Located in the peaceful Cedar Grove community near the Skagit River and the town of Concrete, you’ll enjoy easy access to some of the best outdoor recreation the Pacific Northwest has to offer. The property features a partially fenced yard and a rear patio that overlooks a spacious backyard—perfect for creating your ideal outdoor retreat.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Rear patio
• Level half-acre lot

Tags

• LEVEL HALF-ACRE LOT
• CEDAR GROVE COMMUNITY
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• REAR PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (41.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (40.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.6% in Concrete — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#157 in WA, #3,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Concrete School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #255 of 291 in WA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $220k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $129,586 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.96%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,315
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -30.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $87,233
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $282,554
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98237

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,449/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $129,586

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45100 Shields Ct Apt 201 Concrete, WA	2.0	1.0	842	$1,300	$1.54	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $219,900
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $239,900 Active
18. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus $122,000
19. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus $122,000
20. 2005-05-26
    listed $125,900
21. 1998-12-17
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,449 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,449 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 10 d/yr ≥84°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,449
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$10,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concrete School District
• NCES district ID: 5301660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,849
• Composite: 31.96/100
• National rank: #11033
• State rank: #255 of 291 in WA

Livability — Concrete

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #3709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,110

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.52%
• Current HPI: 533.5113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+158.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $219,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $239,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-27 Sold (MLS) $122,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-26 Listed $125,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,449 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.