The Laurel Plan · Nocatee, FL 32081

$428,940

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily · 772 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Laurel Move-In Ready Home is a spacious 1,884 Sq. Ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Photos and images may be shown for representative purposes only. Illustrations are artist concepts. Actual colors and items may vary from what is shown on brochure and photos/videos of similar completed homes. Builder reserves the right to change specifications, materials, landscaping, colors, options, pricing, dimensions, and square footages without notice. Renderings and floor plans may vary by community and are subject to certain terms, conditions and restrictions.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 772 days

🏗️ New construction. The $428,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $506,212.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Ridge Academy (math 87% / reading 81%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,306 students, 14% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 772 days — a 12% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,520 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 772 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.06%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $506,212
• List price: $428,940
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1412 Kipling Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (-5%)	4mo	$360,000	$202	56
548 E Silverthorn Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+1%)	4mo	$485,000	$255	56
188 Taylor Ridge Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,924 (+2%)	8mo	$495,000	$257	54
753 Hazelmoor Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,933 (+3%)	2mo	$420,000	$217	49
513 Ashton Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,136 (+13%)	1mo	$525,000	$246	47
218 Pinewoods St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+9%)	6mo	$527,000	$257	46
805 Templeton Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,673 (-11%)	1mo	$430,000	$257	45
416 W Silverthorn Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,151 (+14%)	4mo	$595,000	$277	42
180 Taylor Ridge Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-14%)	1mo	$485,000	$299	38
455 Citrus Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,153 (+14%)	9mo	$500,000	$232	33
716 Hazelmoor Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (-14%)	12mo	$415,750	$255	28
184 Woodland Greens Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-14%)	13mo	$461,000	$285	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-114,588
• Equity at exit: $134,732

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-173,292
• Equity at exit: $152,471

Cash invested: $141,739 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$633 /mo · $7,593/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-1,306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,428

Max offer price $317,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-956	-5% $-1,131	+0% $-1,306	+5% $-1,481	+10% $-1,656
Rent	-10% $-1,525	-5% $-1,416	+0% $-1,306	+5% $-1,196	+10% $-1,087
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,051	-0.5pp $-1,177	base $-1,306	+0.5pp $-1,437	+1.0pp $-1,571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,553
• Closing costs: $15,186
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	23d	1	0.65mi
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	25d	1	0.65mi
94 Carlson Ct Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,548	$1.76	23d	1	0.65mi
345 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,771	$2.69	5d	145	0.98mi
95 Silver Creek Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,500	$1.30	25d	1	1.03mi
95 Silver Creek Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,449	$1.27	5d	1	1.03mi
440 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,807	$2.46	4d	25	1.06mi
380 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,087	$2.10	3d	43	1.09mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	5d	46	1.21mi
10260 Old Dixie Hwy Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,099	$1.24	5d	1	1.46mi
377 Broomsedge Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,631	$1.24	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $428,940 Active 772 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $428,940 Active 769 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $428,940 Active 768 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $428,940 Active 767 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $428,940 Active 766 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $428,940 Active 764 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $428,940 Active 763 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $428,940 Active 760 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $428,940 Active 759 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $428,940 Active 758 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $428,940 Active 754 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $428,940 Active 753 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $428,940 Active 752 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $428,940 Active 751 DOM
15. 2026-01-24
    price $428,940 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    The Laurel Move-In Ready Home is a spacious 1,884 Sq. Ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Photos and images may be shown for representative purposes only. Illustrations are artist concepts. Actual colors and items may vary from what is shown on brochure and photos/videos of similar completed homes. Builder reserves the right to change specifications, materials, landscaping, colors, options, pricing, dimensions, and square footages without notice. Renderings and floor plans may vary by community and are subject to certain terms, conditions and restrictions.

16. 2025-07-10
    price $418,940 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    The Laurel Move-In Ready Home is a spacious 1,884 Sq. Ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Photos and images may be shown for representative purposes only. Illustrations are artist concepts. Actual colors and items may vary from what is shown on brochure and photos/videos of similar completed homes. Builder reserves the right to change specifications, materials, landscaping, colors, options, pricing, dimensions, and square footages without notice. Renderings and floor plans may vary by community and are subject to certain terms, conditions and restrictions.

17. 2025-03-15
    price $416,940 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    The Laurel Move-In Ready Home is a spacious 1,884 Sq. Ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Photos and images may be shown for representative purposes only. Illustrations are artist concepts. Actual colors and items may vary from what is shown on brochure and photos/videos of similar completed homes. Builder reserves the right to change specifications, materials, landscaping, colors, options, pricing, dimensions, and square footages without notice. Renderings and floor plans may vary by community and are subject to certain terms, conditions and restrictions.

18. 2024-05-10
    listed $491,940 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    The Laurel Move-In Ready Home is a spacious 1,884 Sq. Ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Photos and images may be shown for representative purposes only. Illustrations are artist concepts. Actual colors and items may vary from what is shown on brochure and photos/videos of similar completed homes. Builder reserves the right to change specifications, materials, landscaping, colors, options, pricing, dimensions, and square footages without notice. Renderings and floor plans may vary by community and are subject to certain terms, conditions and restrictions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,356
• − Property taxes: −$7,593
• − Insurance: −$2,531
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,664
• − Management: −$2,664
• − Depreciation: −$14,726
• Taxable loss: −$25,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $428,940 Zillow
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $418,940 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $416,940 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Listed $491,940 Zillow