4409 Guerlain Way · Brent, FL 32505

$82,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,129 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot $73/sqft · 49% below area Est $161k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS AFFORDABLE 3-BEDROOM, 1-BATH HOME IS FULL OF POTENTIAL AND READY FOR YOUR PERSONAL TOUCH. WITH SOLID BONES AND PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY, IT'S THE PERFECT CANVAS FOR BUYERS LOOKING TO CREATE THEIR DREAM SPACE. THE HOME FEATURES A SPACIOUS 10X20 SCREENED-IN PATIO - IDEAL FOR RELAXING OR ENTERTAINING YEAR-ROUND. STEP OUTSIDE TO ENJOY A FULLY FENCED BACKYARD, OFFERING PRIVACY AND ROOM FOR PETS, GARDENING, OR OUTDOOR GATHERINGS, ALONG WITH A CHAIN-LINK FENCED FRONT YARD FOR ADDED FUNCTIONALITY. WHILE THE HOME DOES NEED WORK INCLUDING SHEETROCK REPLACEMENT, IT PRESENTS A FANTASTIC CHANCE TO BUILD EQUITY AND CUSTOMIZE TO YOUR LIKING. DON'T MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TRANSFORM A PROPERTY WITH GREAT POTENTIAL INTO SOMETHING TRULY SPECIAL!

Key facts

• Screened-in patio
• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CHAIN-LINK FENCED FRONT YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 6.6% in Brent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#484 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.90%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,587
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -48.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4413 Ellysee Way	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,012 (-10%)	2mo	$90,000	$89	76
4509 Cherbourg Way	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-8%)	2mo	$159,000	$153	69
1016 Fremont Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+2%)	2mo	$175,000	$152	67
1032 Fremont Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-3%)	4mo	$107,500	$98	64
4505 Ellysee Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+13%)	4mo	$182,500	$143	63
5100 Cranston Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+8%)	4mo	$229,500	$188	61
922 Monclair Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-10%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	59
800 Montclair Rd	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,158 (+3%)	4mo	$170,000	$147	57
5505 Fairview Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-6%)	2mo	$160,000	$150	54
1231 Ft Smith Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+13%)	3mo	$219,000	$172	48
911 Medford Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+13%)	2mo	$206,000	$161	44
702 Loire Way	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,297 (+15%)	3mo	$100,000	$77	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $31,123
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $93,534
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32505

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
918 Montclair Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,500	$1.48	13d	1	0.43mi
902 Lucerne Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.64mi
2301 W Michigan Ave #21 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1164	$1,325	$1.14	23d	1	0.73mi
2303 W Michigan Ave Unit A6 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,300	$1.28	23d	1	0.77mi
5180 Burlington Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,650	$1.39	23d	1	0.81mi
5602 W Shore Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,250	$1.36	23d	1	0.85mi
707 New York Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,185	$0.94	23d	1	0.95mi
925 Twinbrook Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	23d	1	0.99mi
3417 W Fisher St Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.00mi
2300 W Michigan Ave #12 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	23d	1	1.03mi
2355 W Michigan Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	13d	9	1.08mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	23d	1	1.08mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	23d	1	1.16mi
5877 Tryton Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1419	$1,825	$1.29	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $82,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $82,000 Pending 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $82,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $82,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-04-14
   listed $82,000 Active 739-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   THIS AFFORDABLE 3-BEDROOM, 1-BATH HOME IS FULL OF POTENTIAL AND READY FOR YOUR PERSONAL TOUCH. WITH SOLID BONES AND PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY, IT'S THE PERFECT CANVAS FOR BUYERS LOOKING TO CREATE THEIR DREAM SPACE. THE HOME FEATURES A SPACIOUS 10X20 SCREENED-IN PATIO - IDEAL FOR RELAXING OR ENTERTAINING YEAR-ROUND. STEP OUTSIDE TO ENJOY A FULLY FENCED BACKYARD, OFFERING PRIVACY AND ROOM FOR PETS, GARDENING, OR OUTDOOR GATHERINGS, ALONG WITH A CHAIN-LINK FENCED FRONT YARD FOR ADDED FUNCTIONALITY. WHILE THE HOME DOES NEED WORK INCLUDING SHEETROCK REPLACEMENT, IT PRESENTS A FANTASTIC CHANCE TO BUILD EQUITY AND CUSTOMIZE TO YOUR LIKING. DON'T MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TRANSFORM A PROPERTY WITH GREAT POTENTIAL INTO SOMETHING TRULY SPECIAL!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $6,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,656
• After-tax cash flow: $6,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brent

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #8921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brent, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 27,543
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,877
• Household income: $44,783
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.10%
• Current HPI: 205.45
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.92%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $82,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.