2038 Fairfax Rd · Toledo, OH 43613

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1922 3,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD “AS IS”-NO DISCLOSURE-FAX OFFER WITH LENDER APPROVAL LETTER OR VERIFICATION OF FUNDS-ADDENDUM WILL FOLLOW-NO COMMISSION PAYABLE IF BUYER IS LICENSED AGENT-BUYER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL CONVEYANCEAND TITLE CHARGES-DORMER AREA BONUS ROOM ACCESS VIA REAR BED CLOSET.

Key facts

• 3,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1922

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 7.5% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Stemm Academy (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,527 of 1,584 statewide, top 98%, 279 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $60k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.55%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1936 Mansfield St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,168 (-3%)	1mo	$79,900	$68	87
3664 Sherbrooke Rd	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,255 (+5%)	0mo	$149,000	$119	80
3424 Saint Bernard Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,281 (+7%)	1mo	$154,400	$121	77
3621 Sherbrooke Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,119 (-7%)	1mo	$92,500	$83	71
3725 Kershaw Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,225 (+2%)	1mo	$145,000	$118	70
2014 Barrows St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-11%)	1mo	$110,000	$103	63
1804 Loxley Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-12%)	1mo	$81,290	$77	61
1811 Giant St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-11%)	1mo	$70,000	$65	60
1805 Tremainsville Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-4%)	1mo	$92,000	$80	57
3509 Rushland Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+7%)	1mo	$200,000	$156	49
1827 Jermain Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,375 (+15%)	1mo	$95,000	$69	48
2928 Northwood Ave	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,347 (+12%)	1mo	$214,900	$160	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $21,433
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $59,859
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43613

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,210/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $557

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $500	+0% $483	+5% $466	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $391	-5% $437	+0% $483	+5% $529	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $498	base $483	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1951 Loxley Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	804	$975	$1.21	24d	1	0.18mi
3683 Upton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1119	$1,100	$0.98	44d	1	0.27mi
1846 Loxley Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	876	$900	$1.03	44d	1	0.28mi
1731 Mansfield Rd Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1138	$1,195	$1.05	24d	1	0.37mi
1838 Giant St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	962	$1,200	$1.25	15d	1	0.39mi
1705 Marlow Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	738	$1,000	$1.36	24d	1	0.43mi
1732 Talbot St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	24d	1	0.43mi
1804 Bigelow St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	995	$937	$0.94	44d	1	0.47mi
3430 Anderson Pkwy Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,650	$1.20	24d	1	0.48mi
1718 Giant St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,395	$1.29	15d	1	0.50mi
2301 Portsmouth Ave Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1335	$1,395	$1.04	24d	1	0.54mi
3644 Harley Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1025	$975	$0.95	24d	1	0.63mi
3835 Monroe St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1002	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.64mi
2244 W Sylvania Ave Unit 6 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	44d	1	0.65mi
3803 Monroe St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	942	$850	$0.90	44d	1	0.69mi
2802 Gunckel Blvd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	860	$1,100	$1.28	44d	1	0.74mi
3022 Letchworth Pkwy Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$970	$1.21	44d	1	0.74mi
1573 Jermain Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1254	$1,195	$0.95	15d	1	0.74mi
3817 Burton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	754	$1,015	$1.35	22d	1	0.76mi
1489 Berdan Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,250	$1.17	44d	1	0.77mi
2734 Powhattan Pkwy Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1144	$900	$0.79	44d	1	0.82mi
3901 Leybourn Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	840	$1,150	$1.37	24d	1	0.84mi
3606 Revere Dr Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.87mi
3713 Hazelhurst Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1352	$1,700	$1.26	44d	1	0.94mi
4038 Lyman Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,395	$1.19	44d	1	0.95mi
4315 Garden Park Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,423	$1.12	24d	1	0.96mi
3725 Hoiles Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,245	$1.06	24d	1	1.02mi
3805 Hoiles Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1370	$1,025	$0.75	24d	1	1.02mi
2650 Christie St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$849	$1.06	44d	1	1.04mi
4120 Parrakeet Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,450	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
4435 Jackman Rd Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$922	$1.27	15d	3	1.10mi
2356 Torrey Hill Dr Unit 11 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$800	$0.76	44d	1	1.10mi
1919 Ottawa Dr Unit 7 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.10mi
3541 Willys Pkwy Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	44d	1	1.10mi
2322 Upton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.18mi
4223 Birchall Rd Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1338	$1,395	$1.04	24d	1	1.18mi
3915 Willys Pkwy Unit 3915 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$800	$0.74	22d	1	1.18mi
2704 Kenwood Blvd Toledo, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0	825	$1,488	$1.80	15d	71	1.22mi
4030 Elmhurst Rd Apt 2 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	44d	1	1.23mi
4030 Elmhurst Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 250-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $59,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,210
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $5,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $4,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 30,780
• Household income: $64,384
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 917.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.37%
• Current HPI: 239.1345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+76.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $59,900 NORIS
• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $27,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $52,500 NORIS
• 2006-11-07 Sold (MLS) $27,000 NORIS
• 2006-09-30 Listed $39,900 NORIS
• 2006-09-22 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2006-06-27 Listed $49,900 NORIS
• 2006-06-22 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2006-02-27 Listed $59,900 NORIS
• 2003-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 2002-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2002-03-12 Sold (MLS) $52,500 NORIS
• 2002-03-04 Price Changed $58,500 NORIS
• 2002-02-12 Listed $58,500 NORIS
• 2001-12-13 Sold (MLS) $27,500 NORIS
• 2001-10-22 Price Changed $27,500 NORIS
• 2001-10-12 Listed $21,000 NORIS
• 1990-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $33,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,210 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.