Lucia Plan · Huffman, TX 77336

$260,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $260,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $261k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 857 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,849 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,600
• List price: $260,990
• Delta: -11.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Capracotta Dr	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+8%)	4mo	$352,990	$147	76
31513 San Floro Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+8%)	3mo	$280,990	$117	75
31434 Casacalenda Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	5mo	$199,590	$98	68
906 Coperchiata Cir	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	5mo	$271,990	$133	68
921 Capracotta Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,039 (-9%)	3mo	$213,990	$105	66
31413 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	5mo	$270,990	$133	65
31424 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	5mo	$280,990	$138	64
31404 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,039 (-9%)	3mo	$206,390	$101	64
6B Davidson Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,108 (-6%)	0mo	$379,000	$180	64
31517 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-12%)	5mo	$288,990	$147	57
31506 San Floro Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+14%)	2mo	$318,990	$126	56
1115 Novelle Bend Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,991 (-11%)	3mo	$351,500	$177	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,030
• Equity at exit: $44,970

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-109,725
• Equity at exit: $26,077

Cash invested: $84,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.7 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $258,000 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,524/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,638

Max offer price $230,742

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-385	+0% $-490	+5% $-594	+10% $-698
Rent	-10% $-649	-5% $-569	+0% $-490	+5% $-410	+10% $-330
Rate	-1.0pp $-338	-0.5pp $-413	base $-490	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,400
• Closing costs: $9,048
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	8d	1	0.20mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	69d	1	0.28mi
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	11d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $260,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $260,990 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $260,990 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $265,990 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $265,990 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $265,990 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $265,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $265,990 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $265,990 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    pricedays on market $265,990 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $270,990 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $270,990 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $270,990 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $270,990 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $270,990 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $270,990 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $270,990 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $270,990 Active 198 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 197 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $270,990 Active 196 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $270,990 Active 195 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $270,990 Active 194 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $270,990 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $270,990 Active 191 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $270,990 Active 190 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $270,990 Active 189 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $270,990 Active 188 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $270,990 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $270,990 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $270,990 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $270,990 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $270,990 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $270,990 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $270,990 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $275,990 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $275,990 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $275,990 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $275,990 Active 177 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $275,990 Active 176 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $275,990 Active 175 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $280,990 Active 173 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $280,990 Active 172 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $280,990 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $280,990 Active 170 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 167 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $285,990 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $285,990 Active 164 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $285,990 Active 162 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $285,990 Active 160 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $285,990 Active 159 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,894
• − Property taxes: −$4,524
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$8,774
• Taxable loss: −$11,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers ample space and a luxurious owner's suite, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $319,990 Zillow