7836 Arbor Ln · Callaway, FL 32404

$244,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1979 0.38 ac lot $142/sqft · 19% below area Est $303k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced! Charming ranch-style brick home tucked away on a quiet dead-end street, set on a beautiful lot dotted with mature trees. The property features a detached, oversized two-car garage and offers a peaceful, private setting. Inside, the home boasts a spacious great room and a comfortable living area. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and storage space along with a convenient eat-in area. Major updates include a newer roof installed in 2019 and updated windows. Solidly built, this home presents an excellent opportunity for a new owner to personalize and update to their own taste.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Updated windows
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• DETACHED OVERSIZED GARAGE
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• MATURE TREES
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• UPDATED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $194k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,769 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,618
• List price: $244,500
• Delta: -19.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7213 Hiawatha St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+3%)	6mo	$255,000	$144	63
7612 Old Bicycle Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+6%)	12mo	$337,000	$185	62
7723 Betty Louise Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-7%)	5mo	$259,900	$161	59
7554 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,679 (-3%)	3mo	$339,000	$202	59
519 Plantation Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+14%)	12mo	$307,500	$156	56
7541 Coleridge Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,844 (+7%)	15mo	$327,500	$178	54
174 Osprey Lake Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+4%)	18mo	$248,750	$139	50
127 Kristine Blvd	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,626 (-6%)	17mo	$275,000	$169	41
141 Osprey Lake Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+4%)	22mo	$275,000	$154	39
6940 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+12%)	4mo	$335,000	$173	39
7558 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-11%)	14mo	$315,000	$204	38
121 Osprey Lake Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (+5%)	20mo	$322,400	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,040
• Equity at exit: $36,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,355
• Equity at exit: $21,140

Cash invested: $68,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $244,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $188	+0% $119	+5% $49	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $35	+0% $119	+5% $202	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $181	base $119	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,125
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Betty Louise Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	22d	1	0.45mi
7727 Betty Louise Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,950	$1.36	22d	1	0.56mi
133 Red Bay Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	2208	$2,500	$1.13	22d	1	0.75mi
140 Carriage Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	3.5	2147	$2,800	$1.30	22d	1	0.83mi
211 Sukoshi Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,900	$1.26	22d	1	1.11mi
263 Nelle Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,690	$1.31	22d	1	1.32mi
907 Lee Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$2,100	$0.99	22d	1	1.36mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	22d	1	1.38mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	14d	1	1.46mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,500 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,500 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,500 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,500 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,500 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,500 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,500 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,500 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,500 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,500 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,500 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,500 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,500 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,500 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,500 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,500 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    price $244,500 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Reduced! Charming ranch-style brick home tucked away on a quiet dead-end street, set on a beautiful lot dotted with mature trees. The property features a detached, oversized two-car garage and offers a peaceful, private setting. Inside, the home boasts a spacious great room and a comfortable living area. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and storage space along with a convenient eat-in area. Major updates include a newer roof installed in 2019 and updated windows. Solidly built, this home presents an excellent opportunity for a new owner to personalize and update to their own taste.

19. 2026-03-12
    price $249,500 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Reduced! Charming ranch-style brick home tucked away on a quiet dead-end street, set on a beautiful lot dotted with mature trees. The property features a detached, oversized two-car garage and offers a peaceful, private setting. Inside, the home boasts a spacious great room and a comfortable living area. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and storage space along with a convenient eat-in area. Major updates include a newer roof installed in 2019 and updated windows. Solidly built, this home presents an excellent opportunity for a new owner to personalize and update to their own taste.

20. 2026-02-18
    listed $257,500 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Reduced! Charming ranch-style brick home tucked away on a quiet dead-end street, set on a beautiful lot dotted with mature trees. The property features a detached, oversized two-car garage and offers a peaceful, private setting. Inside, the home boasts a spacious great room and a comfortable living area. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and storage space along with a convenient eat-in area. Major updates include a newer roof installed in 2019 and updated windows. Solidly built, this home presents an excellent opportunity for a new owner to personalize and update to their own taste.

21. 2021-12-09
    historical
22. 2006-05-17
    soldstatus $194,000
23. 2006-05-12
    soldstatus $194,000
24. 2005-11-20
    listed $199,000
25. 2005-11-20
    listed $199,000
26. 2003-02-27
    soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,950 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,029 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,696
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$2,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $244,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $249,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $257,500 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2006-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-12 Sold (MLS) $194,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-11-20 Listed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-11-20 Listed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,950 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.