2533 Guineas Ln · Krugerville, TX 76227

$252,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $153/sqft · 22% below area Est $325k · 22% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Highpointe Ranch - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $600; Association provides full use of facilities and management services (Legacy Southwest Property Management)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete, curbs, and sidewalk access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Not attached to another property; Subdivision: Highpointe Ranch
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Natural stone/granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-317/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Krugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,309 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,000
• List price: $252,999
• Delta: -22.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Arabian Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-3%)	3mo	$296,749	$185	85
312 Perkins Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-0%)	2mo	$325,000	$197	81
509 Cortes St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,746 (+5%)	4mo	$325,000	$186	78
11 Woodhaven Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+5%)	4mo	$325,000	$187	73
203 Surveyors Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-8%)	1mo	$320,000	$211	66
1005 Karen St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (+2%)	2mo	$329,900	$195	65
118 Perkins Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-10%)	1mo	$314,900	$210	57
417 Highmeadow Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-9%)	1mo	$324,000	$216	56
1010 Diane St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+11%)	2mo	$409,900	$224	54
245 Highmeadow Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (+4%)	6mo	$339,000	$197	51
308 Larry Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+13%)	7mo	$399,000	$213	50
828 Greenview Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-9%)	1mo	$320,000	$213	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-49,186
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-70,136
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $249,182

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	43d	1	0.26mi
225 Glenview Dr Unit Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,350	$1.16	2d	1	0.66mi
1011 Pecos St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,300	$1.13	43d	1	0.76mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.79mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	16d	1	0.85mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	7d	1	0.85mi
513 Rock Hill Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,499	$1.44	1d	1	0.93mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	4d	1	0.96mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	43d	1	1.02mi
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	7d	1	1.11mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	43d	1	1.16mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	43d	1	1.21mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	18d	1	1.23mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	2d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 449-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $252,999 Pending 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,999 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $252,999 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,999 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $258,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $258,999 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $258,999 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $258,999 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,999 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-04-29
    listed $260,999 Active 455-char remark
12. 2026-04-28
    price $260,999 403-char remark
13. 2026-04-26
    listed $318,999 Active 403-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$4,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The home's curb appeal and interior can be enhanced with fresh paint and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Krugerville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #672
• US rank: #12629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Krugerville, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 55,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $252,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $258,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $260,999 NTREIS