306 S Oak St · Shelbyville, IL 62565

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1966 0.35 ac lot $71/sqft · 12% below area Est $113k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers a formal dining room, a spacious 25 x 13.3 foot living room with a cozy fireplace, an eat-in kitchen, a 24 x 26 foot 2-car garage providing ample storage, and a generous third of an acre yard ideal for outdoor activities and entertaining. Taxes with one exemption will be $2782.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.0% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.35%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,118
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -11.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 S Locust St	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,450 (+3%)	2mo	$137,500	$95	78
241 N Fern St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$200,000	$149	73
402 S Vine St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+4%)	9mo	$220,500	$151	69
612 North 1st St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,406 (+0%)	8mo	$115,000	$82	68
610 W North 3rd St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,461 (+4%)	5mo	$159,000	$109	60
510 W South 7th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+5%)	2mo	$130,000	$88	56
915 W South 3rd St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-14%)	7mo	$122,500	$102	56
515 W North 2nd St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,499 (+7%)	1mo	$97,900	$65	53
1707 W North 3rd St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	8mo	$224,900	$178	53
419 W South 2nd St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-10%)	3mo	$41,000	$32	51
505 W North 4th St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-6%)	4mo	$136,500	$104	51
308 S Chestnut St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,208 (-14%)	4mo	$8,000	$7	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-841
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,966
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62565

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $727/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $270	+0% $241	+5% $213	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $198	+0% $241	+5% $285	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $267	base $241	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $99,900 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-03-25
    listed $119,900 Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers a formal dining room, a spacious 25 x 13.3 foot living room with a cozy fireplace, an eat-in kitchen, a 24 x 26 foot 2-car garage providing ample storage, and a generous third of an acre yard ideal for outdoor activities and entertaining. Taxes with one exemption will be $2782.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $727 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 105.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$727
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$321
• After-tax cash flow: $2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1736090
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,461
• Composite: 28.1/100
• National rank: #6827
• State rank: #225 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #7321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, IL
• City population: 7,422
• Population (ZIP): 7,422

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 19,675 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 17,851 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 15,973 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 11,799 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 8,030 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.2% · R 79.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+57.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.35%
• Current HPI: 178.3002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $119,900 CIBR

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $727 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.