41705 Carefree Ct · Brambleton, VA 20105

$1,037,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,362 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 5,273 sqft lot $308/sqft · 11% below area Est $1166k · 11% under $107/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gifford home design offers comfort and luxury across three levels and a partially finished basement. The main floor features an open-concept living area, starting with a long foyer leading into a spacious great room with a casual dining space and a well-appointed kitchen. The kitchen consists of a center island with a breakfast bar and a convenient walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary bedroom provides a serene retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-like primary bath with dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three secondary bedrooms, one with a private bath and two sharing full hall baths, offer ample closet space. The partially finished basement adds valuable living space, perfect for entertainment or relaxation, while also providing ample storage areas. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, an everyday entry, and a powder room for your guest s convenience. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.04M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $573k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (49.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $523k (49.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($975k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,902 (49.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.99%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,166,403
• List price: $1,037,000
• Delta: -11.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41684 Carefree Ct	0.05mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,360 (-0%)	8mo	$1,075,000	$320	82
23415 Parkside Village Cir	0.09mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,383 (+1%)	10mo	$1,128,586	$334	77
23467 Parkside Village Cir	0.11mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,379 (+0%)	13mo	$1,097,950	$325	74
41676 Carefree Ct	0.06mi	5/5.0 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	5mo	$1,038,000	$285	72
23359 Parkside Village Cir	0.10mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	4mo	$1,110,000	$304	68
23475 Parkside Village Cir	0.10mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	13mo	$1,156,660	$317	61
23350 Parkside Village Cir	0.10mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,865 (+15%)	4mo	$1,094,485	$283	58
41550 Walking Meadow Dr	0.27mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	11mo	$1,079,950	$295	54
23424 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.21mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	17mo	$1,149,950	$314	53
41562 Walking Meadow Dr	0.25mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	14mo	$1,169,950	$320	53
23416 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.22mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,687 (+10%)	17mo	$1,149,950	$312	51
23397 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.26mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,856 (+15%)	15mo	$1,152,550	$299	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $33,312
• Equity at exit: $586,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $278,682
• Equity at exit: $1,010,130

Cash invested: $290,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20105

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,296 /mo · $15,555/yr
• Insurance: −$432
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,098
• Net cashflow: $-3,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,291

Max offer price $572,652

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $259,250
• Closing costs: $31,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41935 Spring Air Dr Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.0	4104	$4,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.97mi
22773 Orchard Grove Dr Ashburn, VA	6.0	5.0	4692	$5,800	$1.24	2d	1	1.31mi
22810 Tawny Pine Sq Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.5	2740	$5,199	$1.90	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr
• Likely covers: watercable

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,037,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,037,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,037,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,037,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,037,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $1,060,000 Active 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    The Gifford home design offers comfort and luxury across three levels and a partially finished basement. The main floor features an open-concept living area, starting with a long foyer leading into a spacious great room with a casual dining space and a well-appointed kitchen. The kitchen consists of a center island with a breakfast bar and a convenient walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary bedroom provides a serene retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-like primary bath with dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three secondary bedrooms, one with a private bath and two sharing full hall baths, offer ample closet space. The partially finished basement adds valuable living space, perfect for entertainment or relaxation, while also providing ample storage areas. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, an everyday entry, and a powder room for your guest s convenience. Disclaimer: Photos are images only and should not be relied upon to confirm applicable features.

15. 2026-04-06
    listed $1,060,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    The Gifford home design blends comfort and luxury across three levels with a partially finished daylight basement that adds extra living and entertaining space. The main floor features an open-concept layout with a spacious great room, casual dining area, and a gourmet kitchen with a center island, breakfast bar, and walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a large walk-in closet and a spa-like bath with dual vanities and a premium shower. Additional bedrooms, a two-car garage, and multiple entertaining zones throughout the home provide both functionality and versatility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,088
• − Property taxes: −$15,555
• − Insurance: −$5,982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,020
• − Management: −$5,020
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$30,167
• Taxable loss: −$58,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brambleton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #6915

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 63,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,639
• Household income: $219,123
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 31% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 344.3873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $1,060,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Listed $1,060,000 BRIGHT MLS