29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #207 · Santa Clarita, CA 91390

$224,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $168k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in Lily of the Valley, a well-kept community with a pool and playground conveniently positioned right in front of the home. Inside, you’ll find a bright and open layout with vaulted ceilings and an upgraded kitchen that really stands out. The kitchen features newer countertops done about 9 months ago, painted cabinetry, a modern sink, recessed lighting, a pantry, and a large center island that serves as the focal point of the space, offering plenty of prep space and seating while opening up seamlessly to the living and dining areas. Both bathrooms have been remodeled within the past year with clean, update

Key facts

• 1 year old ac unit
• Newer windows
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• 1 YEAR OLD AC UNIT
• PARTIALLY UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park features include a park and community pool
• Financial info: Land lease applies (current amount: $1,137 monthly)
• HOA & community: Park community (Lilly of the Valley); Manager approval required for park residency

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Newport 700 model); Mobile remains on property; Mobile dimensions approximately 24 by 44 feet; Facing/entry level: entry on left side
• Construction: Listed year built from public records
• Exterior features: Storage building; Shed; Community pool; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry is on the left side
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Highlands Elementary (561 students, 22% FRL); Arroyo Seco Junior High (1,217 students, 17% FRL); Saugus High (2,378 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,490 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.03%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,904
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29021 Bouquet Cyn #331	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+8%)	4mo	$160,000	$140	83
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #382	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	0mo	$212,000	$221	76
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #340	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	21mo	$175,000	$159	75
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #299	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	18mo	$115,000	$103	74
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #267	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+8%)	21mo	$235,000	$207	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $23,890
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $98,644
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91390

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $224,990

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,102	-5% $1,025	+0% $947	+5% $869	+10% $791
Rent	-10% $697	-5% $822	+0% $947	+5% $1,072	+10% $1,197
Rate	-1.0pp $1,060	-0.5pp $1,004	base $947	+0.5pp $888	+1.0pp $829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	0d	1	1.33mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$3,700	$3.52	25d	2	1.34mi
20833 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	1.0	834	$2,495	$2.99	16d	1	1.35mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	0d	1	1.40mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	8d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,990 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,990 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,990 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,990 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,990 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $224,990 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,990 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,990 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,990 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,990 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,990 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $224,990 Active
18. 2010-07-11
    historical
19. 2010-03-04
    price $54,900
20. 2009-09-05
    listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $8,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,985
• After-tax cash flow: $9,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 219,066
• Population (ZIP): 18,722

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.65%
• Current HPI: 325.09
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+275.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $224,990 CRMLS
• 2010-07-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-03-04 Price Changed $54,900 CRMLS
• 2009-09-05 Listed $59,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $429 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.