Willow Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Elements Series Willow floor plan is a single-story home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Features of this plan include a large family room, open dining and kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, and a primary suite with a walk-in closet. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Custom cabinets
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AND KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,872.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 780 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,617 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,872
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
592 Highview Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,843 (-0%)	4mo	$360,000	$195	82
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	3mo	$324,900	$176	80
445 Avian Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,001 (+8%)	1mo	$326,970	$163	72
921 Amberwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-11%)	0mo	$279,990	$171	71
932 Creekhollow Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,845 (0%)	2mo	$327,000	$177	71
1017 River Oaks Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,811 (-2%)	3mo	$331,000	$183	71
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-0%)	4mo	$346,000	$188	71
1010 Stockton Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,041 (+11%)	4mo	$319,900	$157	70
409 Birchwood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-11%)	2mo	$287,990	$175	66
408 Birchwood Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (+6%)	2mo	$349,540	$179	65
1005 River Oaks Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-7%)	3mo	$328,000	$190	63
405 W Graham St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-4%)	1mo	$235,000	$133	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-72,716
• Equity at exit: $48,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,646
• Equity at exit: $28,262

Cash invested: $91,524 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $328,490 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 780
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,903/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,859

Max offer price $281,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-198	+0% $-311	+5% $-424	+10% $-537
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-408	+0% $-311	+5% $-213	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-228	base $-311	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,718
• Closing costs: $9,806
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	80d	1	0.23mi
1136 Country Glen Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,800	$1.25	6d	1	0.31mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	157d	1	0.36mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	152d	1	0.36mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	151d	1	0.40mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	71d	1	0.50mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	184d	1	0.53mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	80d	1	0.54mi
9508 Ocelot Ct Godley, TX	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,520	$0.97	94d	1	0.95mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	184d	1	1.17mi
8109 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	3.0	2306	$2,500	$1.08	3d	1	1.28mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,330	$1.15	0d	1	1.32mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	65d	1	1.34mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	86d	1	1.34mi
8217 Catclaw Pr Godley, TX	3.0	3.0	2430	$2,445	$1.01	7d	1	1.37mi
8213 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,300	$1.24	165d	1	1.37mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	131d	1	1.38mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	72d	1	1.38mi
641 Pawprint Holw Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	1993	$2,300	$1.15	29d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1012 Brenham Dr, Godley, TX 76044
• Financial info: List price $309,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Willow plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,845

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Willow)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $309,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $309,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $309,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $309,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $309,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,310
• − Property taxes: −$4,903
• − Insurance: −$1,634
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$9,509
• Taxable loss: −$9,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Godley, TX, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernize and improve energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1012 Brenham Dr, Godley, TX 76044
• Financial info: List price $309,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Willow plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,845

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Willow)