Willow Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily · 775 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Elements Series Willow floor plan is a single-story home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Features of this plan include a large family room, open dining and kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, and a primary suite with a walk-in closet. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Large family room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 774 days

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AND KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS AND ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $318,802.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 649 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 775 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,539 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 775 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,802
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -2.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1027 Stockton Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+1%)	2mo	$315,000	$169	92
592 Highview Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,843 (-0%)	1mo	$360,000	$195	84
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	0mo	$324,900	$176	83
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-0%)	1mo	$346,000	$188	74
432 Avian Way	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-3%)	3mo	$299,990	$167	73
1010 Stockton Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,041 (+11%)	1mo	$319,900	$157	73
517 Highview Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-2%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	72
568 Highview Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$210	71
1156 Goldenrod Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-7%)	6mo	$235,000	$137	68
525 Mckittrick Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-2%)	5mo	$359,500	$199	64
448 Avian Way	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (+6%)	5mo	$319,990	$164	64
933 Creekhollow Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-9%)	2mo	$320,000	$191	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,903
• Equity at exit: $47,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,100
• Equity at exit: $27,564

Cash invested: $89,265 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $337,495 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 125 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,672
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,782/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,789

Max offer price $279,543

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-161	+0% $-271	+5% $-381	+10% $-492
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-368	+0% $-271	+5% $-175	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-111	-0.5pp $-190	base $-271	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,701
• Closing costs: $9,564
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	66d	1	0.36mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	60d	1	0.36mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	59d	1	0.40mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	0d	1	0.50mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	93d	1	0.53mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	0d	1	0.54mi
9508 Ocelot Ct Godley, TX	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,520	$0.97	2d	1	0.95mi
9500 County Road 1001 Godley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,050	$1.93	0d	15	1.08mi
620 E Godley Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,295	$1.34	0d	1	1.16mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	93d	1	1.17mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,270	$1.12	0d	1	1.32mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,495	$1.18	23d	1	1.34mi
8213 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,300	$1.24	73d	1	1.37mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,350	$1.35	0d	1	1.38mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	39d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 775 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $309,990 Active 773 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $309,990 Active 772 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 771 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $309,990 Active 770 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 767 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 766 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 765 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $309,990 Active 764 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 762 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 760 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 759 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 758 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 757 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 756 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 754 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 753 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 752 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 751 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 750 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 749 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 748 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 747 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 746 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 745 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 743 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 742 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 741 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 740 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 739 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 738 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 737 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 736 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 735 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 734 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 733 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 732 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 730 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 728 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 727 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 724 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 723 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 722 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 721 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 719 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 718 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 715 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 714 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 713 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 710 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,858
• − Property taxes: −$4,782
• − Insurance: −$1,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$9,274
• Taxable loss: −$8,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Godley, TX, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernize and improve energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-24 Listed $309,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-08 Listed $309,990 Zillow