431 Lytle Ave · Harbor Beach, MI 48441

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 0.43 ac lot Est $181k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 1 bath with 1 car detached garage and additional 30 X 20 shed. Home has 15 x 7 sun porch to enjoy that morning coffee. Just shy of half an acre lot. . walking distance to lake Huron, Beach and bike path. . A great opportunity for a second home as the house will come furnished. Don't let this one get away, call and set up a showing.

Key facts

• Sun porch
• Half an acre lot
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• SUN PORCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE HURON
• HALF AN ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop — 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story with ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions about 80 x 280 x 80 x 280; Lot size approximately 0.43 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($343/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#134 in MI, #3,278 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harbor Beach Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #246 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huron County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $103,277 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,958
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 Lytle Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	12mo	$142,000	$137	77
363 NELSON St	0.35mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$166,000	$173	60
363 Nelson St	0.35mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$166,000	$173	60
325 Second St. South	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+14%)	22mo	$95,000	$79	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-20,130
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,486
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48441

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $277/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $67	+0% $29	+5% $-164	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-12	+0% $29	+5% $69	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $63	base $29	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 344-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $135,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $277 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$901/yr (+$75/mo · 324.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$277
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$488
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harbor Beach Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2600007
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,037
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5879
• State rank: #246 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harbor Beach

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3278

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harbor Beach, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,867

Population outlook (Huron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,325 people
• By 2030: 27,810 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 24,571 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,573 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 16,120 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 11,097 · -62.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.2pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.03%
• Current HPI: 250.479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $277 · -71.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.