654 Ellor Dr · San Antonio, TX 78228

$150,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1953 7,492 sqft lot Est $173k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH!! NEEDS SOME TLC BUT DEFINITELY HAS POTENTIAL. Home has original hardwood floors, new tub, vanity toilet and front door. Ceiling fan and or chandeliers in rooms. Huge carport along side of home (appx. 3 cars), covered front and back patio. Nice big back yard.

Key facts

• Huge side carport
• Ceiling fans
• Original chandeliers

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CEILING FANS
• ORIGINAL CHANDELIERS
• HUGE SIDE CARPORT
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PATIOS
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: LOMA PARK HEIGHTS

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Approximately 73 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — 11 x 10
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level) — 14 x 13; Bedroom 2 — 8 x 10; Bedroom 3 — 8 x 10
• Flooring: Wood floors; Vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Living/dining room combination; Utility room inside; Some window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections; Laundry room / utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($941/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edgewood ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #812 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Loma Park El (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 586 students, 98% FRL); Memorial H S (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,246 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 872 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 24% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,734 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,608
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4466 Lark Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	990 (-0%)	4mo	$147,000	$148	78
334 Continental	0.29mi	3/1.0	944 (-5%)	7mo	$195,000	$207	72
4623 Lark Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	932 (-6%)	18mo	$160,000	$172	63
631 Overhill Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	986 (-1%)	10mo	$175,000	$177	60
122 Bangor Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-3%)	6mo	$144,000	$150	57
111 Continental	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,082 (+9%)	7mo	$188,000	$174	53
117 Riverdale	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+6%)	4mo	$145,000	$138	52
930 Marquette Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+3%)	24mo	$180,000	$175	49
170 Brandywine Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+10%)	22mo	$209,000	$192	45
111 Baird St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+5%)	23mo	$179,999	$172	40
671 Overhill Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	915 (-8%)	23mo	$170,000	$186	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,419
• Equity at exit: $22,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,159
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78228

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,178/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $150,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $121	+0% $78	+5% $36	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $19	+0% $78	+5% $138	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $117	base $78	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Globe Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	4d	1	0.33mi
127 Riverdale Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	13d	1	0.64mi
330 W Cheryl Dr San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	45d	1	1.03mi
306 Overhill Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1009	$1,200	$1.19	5d	1	1.11mi
3301 W Woodlawn Ave San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$881	$1.07	25d	3	1.21mi
1171 Bandera Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,375	$1.83	25d	5	1.26mi
224 Marquette Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,350	$1.37	25d	1	1.36mi
2426 Cincinnati Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 490-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $150,999 Pending 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,178 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,178 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$3,178
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable loss: −$1,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$359
• After-tax cash flow: $1,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edgewood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818150
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $27,419
• Composite: 12.82/100
• National rank: #9597
• State rank: #812 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,165
• Household income: $52,976
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2709.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 43% White 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.04%
• Current HPI: 261.1558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.92%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+62.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-09 Listed $150,999 LERA
• 2022-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-11-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-11-27 Pending — LERA
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $129,999 LERA
• 2022-10-11 Price Changed $134,999 LERA
• 2022-10-08 Price Changed $139,900 LERA
• 2022-10-03 Listed $149,900 LERA
• 2022-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2010-03-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2009-07-20 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2009-05-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-11-04 Listed $93,000 LERA

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,178 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.