630 E Kay St · Republic, MO 65738

$187,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1985 0.52 ac lot $118/sqft · 27% below area Est $257k · 27% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE Opportunity on this Over 1,500 Sq Ft ALL-BRICK Home in REPUBLIC, MO! Looking for a peaceful retreat in one of Southwest Missouri's fastest-growing communities? This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom all-brick home offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. Inside you'll find vaulted ceilings, large rooms and a great floorplan. With a great location: situated on a non-through street, outside you'll enjoy plenty of room for a garden or outdoor entertainment. This Short Sale Opportunity is Listed at a competitive price to move fast. Republic is booming, it's the place to be for anyone looking for a smart investment. You'll Enjoy close proximity to Republic Parks shopping, entertainment and restaurants with quick access to Highway 60 for a fast and convenient commute to Springfield. Don't wait! Short sales at this price point are rare in the Republic Market!

Key facts

• Non-through street
• Room for a garden
• All-brick home

Tags

• ALL-BRICK HOME
• NON-THROUGH STREET
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 60

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sweeny Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #86 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 501 students, 40% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,284
• List price: $187,900
• Delta: -26.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 E Kay St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,594 (0%)	1mo	$187,900	$118	99
514 E Kay St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+7%)	3mo	$289,500	$170	80
1394 N Collins Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+1%)	4mo	$340,000	$212	63
183 E Cowling St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-3%)	1mo	$324,900	$210	60
1169 N Blackstone Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (-1%)	6mo	$269,900	$172	58
214 E Lapis St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-10%)	9mo	$279,900	$194	52
531 N Alexander Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+14%)	6mo	$185,000	$102	51
533 N Main St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-8%)	7mo	$159,995	$110	48
198 E Chloe Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+10%)	2mo	$335,000	$191	47
1406 N Collins Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (+7%)	4mo	$365,000	$213	47
645 N College Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-10%)	8mo	$195,000	$137	41
1429 N Collins Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+10%)	5mo	$349,900	$200	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,886
• Equity at exit: $28,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,039
• Equity at exit: $16,246

Cash invested: $52,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $187,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $265	+0% $212	+5% $158	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $140	+0% $212	+5% $283	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $259	base $212	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,975
• Closing costs: $5,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1740 E Hamilton St Republic, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,395	$1.26	45d	7	0.67mi
241 W Wilson St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,800	$1.48	15d	1	0.77mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	45d	1	0.88mi
810 N Oakwood Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$924	$0.75	15d	4	0.99mi
625 Turner Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5	1609	$1,895	$1.18	15d	6	1.05mi
644 N Cox Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	1.21mi
923 N Blake AVE Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.29mi
929 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.29mi
937 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.29mi
1031 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.30mi
922 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.32mi
928 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	1.32mi
1090 N Northwood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,200	$0.91	15d	1	1.34mi
725 W Juan Tabo Ln Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	1.37mi
2488 Timber Oak St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	45d	1	1.38mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	1.39mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   SHORT SALE Opportunity on this Over 1,500 Sq Ft ALL-BRICK Home in REPUBLIC, MO! Looking for a peaceful retreat in one of Southwest Missouri's fastest-growing communities? This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom all-brick home offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. Inside you'll find vaulted ceilings, large rooms and a great floorplan. With a great location: situated on a non-through street, outside you'll enjoy plenty of room for a garden or outdoor entertainment. This Short Sale Opportunity is Listed at a competitive price to move fast. Republic is booming, it's the place to be for anyone looking for a smart investment. You'll Enjoy close proximity to Republic Parks shopping, entertainment and restaurants with quick access to Highway 60 for a fast and convenient commute to Springfield. Don't wait! Short sales at this price point are rare in the Republic Market!

2. 2025-12-20
   price $187,900 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   SHORT SALE Opportunity on this Over 1,500 Sq Ft ALL-BRICK Home in REPUBLIC, MO! Looking for a peaceful retreat in one of Southwest Missouri's fastest-growing communities? This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom all-brick home offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. Inside you'll find vaulted ceilings, large rooms and a great floorplan. With a great location: situated on a non-through street, outside you'll enjoy plenty of room for a garden or outdoor entertainment. This Short Sale Opportunity is Listed at a competitive price to move fast. Republic is booming, it's the place to be for anyone looking for a smart investment. You'll Enjoy close proximity to Republic Parks shopping, entertainment and restaurants with quick access to Highway 60 for a fast and convenient commute to Springfield. Don't wait! Short sales at this price point are rare in the Republic Market!

3. 2025-12-19
   listed $199,900 Active 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   SHORT SALE Opportunity on this Over 1,500 Sq Ft ALL-BRICK Home in REPUBLIC, MO! Looking for a peaceful retreat in one of Southwest Missouri's fastest-growing communities? This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom all-brick home offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. Inside you'll find vaulted ceilings, large rooms and a great floorplan. With a great location: situated on a non-through street, outside you'll enjoy plenty of room for a garden or outdoor entertainment. This Short Sale Opportunity is Listed at a competitive price to move fast. Republic is booming, it's the place to be for anyone looking for a smart investment. You'll Enjoy close proximity to Republic Parks shopping, entertainment and restaurants with quick access to Highway 60 for a fast and convenient commute to Springfield. Don't wait! Short sales at this price point are rare in the Republic Market!

4. 2023-02-28
   price $260,000
5. 2023-02-22
   listed $265,000 Active
6. 2022-10-14
   soldstatus
7. 2022-10-12
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2022-09-15
   status Pending
9. 2022-08-31
   status Active
10. 2022-08-26
    status Pending
11. 2022-08-24
    listed $239,900 Active
12. 2012-09-19
    soldstatus
13. 2006-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$5,466
• Taxable loss: −$547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $2,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $187,900 SOMO
• 2025-12-19 Listed $199,900 SOMO
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $260,000 SOMO
• 2023-02-22 Listed $265,000 SOMO
• 2022-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2022-09-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-08-31 Relisted — SOMO
• 2022-08-26 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-08-24 Listed $239,900 SOMO
• 2012-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,792 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.