224 Cawthon Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1977 0.80 ac lot $153/sqft · 33% below area Est $307k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home with peaceful pond views and just steps from Cedar Creek Lake. A great investment opportunity ready for your personal touch!

Key facts

• Cedar creek lake
• Pond views
• 0.8 acre lot

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• CEDAR CREEK LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,308 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,854
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -33.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Barcelona St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-0%)	13mo	$199,995	$150	67
138 Barcelona St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-0%)	12mo	$199,995	$150	65
155 Barcelona St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	4mo	$200,000	$139	57
106 Ute Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-6%)	3mo	$209,000	$167	52
164 Baywood Blvd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,230 (-8%)	21mo	$319,900	$260	46
110 Cortez	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-1%)	23mo	$245,000	$186	45
129 Barcelona St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	24mo	$242,500	$162	37
379 E Golden Oaks Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+10%)	13mo	$105,000	$71	36
134 Armada Loop	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,190 (-11%)	14mo	$399,900	$336	31
126 Lakeland Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	22mo	$365,000	$245	31
6224 Cheyenne Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,169 (-12%)	19mo	$185,900	$159	31
104 Ute Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	22mo	$208,000	$173	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-45,767
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-68,719
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,654/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $183,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-61	+0% $-120	+5% $-178	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-187	+0% $-120	+5% $-52	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-67	base $-120	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	45d	1	0.53mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	45d	1	0.71mi
207 Woody Rd Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	45d	1	1.19mi
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	1.32mi
851 Welch Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    listed $205,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath home with peaceful pond views and just steps from Cedar Creek Lake. A great investment opportunity ready for your personal touch!

19. 2013-02-26
    soldstatus Closed 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

20. 2013-02-26
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

21. 2013-02-08
    status Pending 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

22. 2013-01-31
    status Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

23. 2013-01-10
    status Active Contingent 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

24. 2013-01-10
    historical 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

25. 2013-01-08
    historical Active Contingent 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

26. 2012-12-13
    price $42,900 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

27. 2012-12-13
    status Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

28. 2012-12-11
    historical 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

29. 2012-11-12
    price $47,900 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

30. 2012-10-12
    price $54,900 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

31. 2012-09-12
    listed $59,900 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

32. 2012-09-12
    listed $42,900

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    CUTE 3-2-2CP FRAME HOME ON 3 LOTS (. 82 ACRE). HOME COULD USE SOME UPDATING AND COSMETICS, TLC. THIRD BEDROOM IS CONVERTED TO 1 CAR GARAGE. HOME HAS NICE POND BEHIND IT THAT IS SHARED. SMALL STORAGE BUILDING, FENCED & CROSS FENCED FOR PETS.

33. 2011-11-17
    historical
34. 2011-08-17
    status Active
35. 2011-08-17
    historical
36. 2009-11-16
    listed $84,900 Active
37. 2004-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,654 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$98/yr (+$8/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,654
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+141.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2013-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2013-02-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-02-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-01-31 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-01-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-01-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-01-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2012-12-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-12-13 Price Changed $42,900 NTREIS
• 2012-12-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-11-12 Price Changed $47,900 NTREIS
• 2012-10-12 Price Changed $54,900 NTREIS
• 2012-09-12 Listed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2012-09-12 Listed $42,900 HCBOR
• 2011-11-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-08-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2011-08-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-11-16 Listed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2004-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,654 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.