3846 Santa Alexandra Rd · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,907 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2021 4,792 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2021 and conveniently located in Metro Central, this 1907 sq. ft. , 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a sophisticated blend of high-tech efficiency and modern comfort. The open-concept interior is defined by elegant wood-look tile, beautifully contrasted by dark cabinetry and speckled granite countertops in the gourmet kitchen and baths. Natural light pours into the heart of the home through an oversized sliding glass door, which opens to a covered patio leading to a front-row seat of the stunning Organ Mountain views. The grass backyard is fully enclosed by a tall rock wall. Designed for the tech-forward homeowner, the property is fully wired with Ethernet and Ubiquiti network equipment, complemented by a comprehensive smart security system (leased). Most notably, the home features a 46-panel solar system, offering incredible energy potential. Just minutes from Ninja Park and HWY 70.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Organ mountain views

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• ORGAN MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FULLY ENCLOSED BACKYARD
• 46-PANEL SOLAR SYSTEM
• FULLY WIRED WITH ETHERNET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (718 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (803 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 592 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,333 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-79,981
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-102,915
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 592
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,222/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,633

Max offer price $239,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-367	+0% $-458	+5% $-548	+10% $-639
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-539	+0% $-458	+5% $-377	+10% $-296
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-376	base $-458	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3833 Ranchers Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.42mi
7013 Silver Spur St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2330	$2,200	$0.94	22d	1	0.44mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	45d	1	0.53mi
7516 Sierra de Oro Pl Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	14d	1	0.56mi
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	0.63mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	45d	1	0.63mi
7353 Vista de Sobre Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,895	$1.26	45d	1	0.86mi
3704 Chromite Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.12mi
4942 Sherwood Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,625	$1.18	14d	1	1.14mi
5015 Emerald St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,450	$1.02	45d	1	1.16mi
3860 Las Colinas Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,600	$1.03	22d	1	1.19mi
5014 Kenner Way Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,825	$1.10	14d	1	1.21mi
5042 Kenner Way Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2400	$1,800	$0.75	46d	1	1.24mi
3670 Gem St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	1.30mi
3862 Van Ess Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,545	$1.04	14d	1	1.32mi
3350 Longview Ln Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	2135	$1,895	$0.89	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $320,000 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Built in 2021 and conveniently located in Metro Central, this 1907 sq. ft. , 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a sophisticated blend of high-tech efficiency and modern comfort. The open-concept interior is defined by elegant wood-look tile, beautifully contrasted by dark cabinetry and speckled granite countertops in the gourmet kitchen and baths. Natural light pours into the heart of the home through an oversized sliding glass door, which opens to a covered patio leading to a front-row seat of the stunning Organ Mountain views. The grass backyard is fully enclosed by a tall rock wall. Designed for the tech-forward homeowner, the property is fully wired with Ethernet and Ubiquiti network equipment, complemented by a comprehensive smart security system (leased). Most notably, the home features a 46-panel solar system, offering incredible energy potential. Just minutes from Ninja Park and HWY 70.

16. 2026-02-16
    listed $345,000 Active 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Built in 2021 and conveniently located in Metro Central, this 1907 sq. ft. , 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a sophisticated blend of high-tech efficiency and modern comfort. The open-concept interior is defined by elegant wood-look tile, beautifully contrasted by dark cabinetry and speckled granite countertops in the gourmet kitchen and baths. Natural light pours into the heart of the home through an oversized sliding glass door, which opens to a covered patio leading to a front-row seat of the stunning Organ Mountain views. The grass backyard is fully enclosed by a tall rock wall. Designed for the tech-forward homeowner, the property is fully wired with Ethernet and Ubiquiti network equipment, complemented by a comprehensive smart security system (leased). Most notably, the home features a 46-panel solar system, offering incredible energy potential. Just minutes from Ninja Park and HWY 70.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,222 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,222 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,222
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,726
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $320,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-16 Listed $345,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+34.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,222 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.