811 Bellaire Ave · Dayton, OH 45420

$164,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1928 10,001 sqft lot Est $225k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderfully well maintained 2 story has many added features including: Totally updated kitchen with bar seating added, natural hardwood thru-out, updated bath & added 1st floor bath, inviting front porch, oversized garage & storage shed/pool house, sparkling inground pool, entertraining deck & oversized landspaced yard, updated mechanicals including electric, a/c, furnace, etc. First floor laundry room. A real beauty - A must see.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Storage shed
• Expansive deck

Tags

• PRIVATE INGROUND POOL
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• 0.22-ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is listed for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached one-car garage
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Natural gas heating; Central air (electric)
• Home design: Two-story residence; Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Porch; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen (approx. 13 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (approx. 11 x 13); Second level bedroom (approx. 11 x 11); Second level large room (approx. 21 x 15) — could be used as bedroom/bonus space
• Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring type not specified)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Ceiling fan(s); Laminate countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Full unfinished basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($443/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,952 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,532
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Nordale Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$162	75
2804 Winburn Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-13%)	2mo	$195,000	$154	65
4408 Woodbine Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,458 (0%)	2mo	$195,000	$134	63
208 Nordale Ave	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-8%)	1mo	$215,000	$160	63
2828 Dwight Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,308 (-10%)	2mo	$187,000	$143	61
135 Puritan Pl	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,429 (-2%)	2mo	$166,000	$116	58
922 Broadmoor Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+2%)	1mo	$272,000	$183	57
3229 Kenmore Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-13%)	3mo	$205,000	$161	55
3605 Woodbine Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-12%)	1mo	$135,000	$105	54
934 Weng Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-14%)	4mo	$157,000	$125	54
724 Patterson Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,367 (-6%)	4mo	$258,500	$189	52
2225 Revere Ave	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,608 (+10%)	4mo	$160,000	$100	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,380
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,871
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45420

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,234/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $84	+0% $37	+5% $-10	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-25	+0% $37	+5% $99	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $79	base $37	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
906 Nordale Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,200	$1.74	46d	1	0.07mi
1121 Colwick Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,875	$1.47	23d	1	0.31mi
2212 Fauver Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,795	$1.38	46d	1	0.48mi
3311 S Smithville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1019	$1,295	$1.27	46d	1	0.49mi
1053 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,495	$1.46	4d	5	0.54mi
1059 Wilmington Ave Unit 1059 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,495	$1.36	46d	1	0.54mi
933 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	802	$980	$1.22	5d	8	0.61mi
2029 Brookline Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$1,270	$1.28	16d	1	0.65mi
1828 Hazel Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$1,435	$1.49	4d	1	0.66mi
809 Patterson Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–1.5	895	$1,075	$1.20	4d	7	0.67mi
737 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	25d	1	0.71mi
2526 Kennedy Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,300	$1.06	46d	1	0.72mi
1905 Coventry Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	0.72mi
2112 Patterson Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,425	$1.41	4d	1	0.74mi
3603 S Smithville Rd Kettering, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	25d	1	0.78mi
4253 Pleasant View Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	46d	1	0.84mi
4249 Pleasant View Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	46d	1	0.84mi
2600 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	1.5	1328	$1,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.93mi
1410 Phillips Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	46d	1	0.96mi
344 Firwood Dr Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	739	$1,350	$1.83	4d	15	0.96mi
2274 Broadmoor Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,145	$1.81	4d	1	1.02mi
2306 Alice St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	918	$1,200	$1.31	5d	1	1.06mi
1659 Hearthstone Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,195	$1.08	4d	1	1.21mi
440 Lonsdale Ave #1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	1.22mi
4500 Elliot Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1283	$1,250	$0.97	4d	1	1.22mi
1520 S Smithville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,345	$0.91	4d	1	1.24mi
854 Santa Cruz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	46d	1	1.26mi
1430 Coventry Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,125	$1.02	16d	1	1.27mi
1101 Phillips Ave Unit 1101 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	46d	1	1.27mi
313 Illinois Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1142	$975	$0.85	5d	1	1.30mi
920 E Stewart St Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1322	$1,425	$1.08	46d	1	1.32mi
2132 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,350	$0.91	4d	1	1.33mi
3100 Linden Ave Unit 3102 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1035	$995	$0.96	46d	1	1.34mi
534 Beckman St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,400	$0.96	4d	1	1.35mi
2212 Farmside Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,395	$1.38	46d	1	1.36mi
2114 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1723	$1,595	$0.93	46d	1	1.36mi
136 Indiana Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1194	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	1.37mi
1901 Shroyer Rd Oakwood, OH	2.0	2.0	1262	$2,000	$1.58	4d	1	1.40mi
2012 Saint Charles Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	945	$1,250	$1.32	46d	1	1.41mi
706 Kolping Ave Unit 706 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1172	$1,300	$1.11	4d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $164,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $164,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,234 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,234 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,234
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 24,411
• Household income: $60,588
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.56%
• Current HPI: 241.6543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $164,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,422,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-10 Sold (MLS) $101,000 Dayton MLS
• 2012-02-10 Sold (MLS) $101,000 Dayton MLS
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2011-07-22 Listed $106,250 Dayton MLS
• 2011-07-20 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2010-10-11 Listed $109,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,234 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.