403 N Robey Ave · Fritch, TX 79036

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2007 8,400 sqft lot $140/sqft · 8% below area Est $131k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home with room, a large backyard, and close to recreation? Come take a look at this three bedroom, one bath home in Fritch. Close to the main road, it is a short drive to boating and other activities close by. It has a one car attached garage with a carport in front of it for extra protection. It has a spacious laundry room, and nicely appointed bathroom. It has a separated dining room and large window looking to the backyard. It is also close to an open field, and the local school. Enjoy the peace and tranquility of your new home.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 8,400 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• SEPARATED DINING ROOM
• CLOSE TO LOCAL SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-643/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#329 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Sanford-Fritch ISD (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,718 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,002
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,843
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-24,218
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79036

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,850/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $110,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-20	+0% $-54	+5% $-88	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-93	+0% $-54	+5% $-15	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-23	base $-54	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    soldstatus
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $120,000 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Looking for a home with room, a large backyard, and close to recreation? Come take a look at this three bedroom, one bath home in Fritch. Close to the main road, it is a short drive to boating and other activities close by. It has a one car attached garage with a carport in front of it for extra protection. It has a spacious laundry room, and nicely appointed bathroom. It has a separated dining room and large window looking to the backyard. It is also close to an open field, and the local school. Enjoy the peace and tranquility of your new home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,850 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,850
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$948
• − Management: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$651
• After-tax cash flow: $8/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanford-Fritch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,570
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5314
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fritch

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #7215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fritch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,957

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.35%
• Current HPI: 148.285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-06 Listed $120,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,850 · +30.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.