950 Willard Ave · Newington, CT 06111

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1956 0.41 ac lot $217/sqft · 9% below area Est $385k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious L-shaped ranch overlooking the scenic Indian Hill Country Club. This well-built home offers a warm, inviting layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Gather with friends/loved ones in the expansive kitchen/dining areas or relax in the oversized living room which features a cozy fireplace. The home offers five bedrooms with beautiful hardwood flooring throughout. The fifth bedroom is currently being used as a laundry room and can easily be converted back, with laundry relocated to the basement. A large walk-out basement provides abundant storage space and excellent potential for future finished living space. Charming breezeway, ideal for mild-weather days. Additional hig

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Single family property
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding with stone accents; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Wall oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heat fuel
• Interior features: Cable available; Possible in-law apartment; One fireplace; Full basement with walk-out; Attic accessible via hatch; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Domestic hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Newington — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#30 in CT, #2,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Newington School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #87 of 153 in CT (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Newington High School (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #43 of 194 statewide, top 22%, 1,327 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newington School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,263 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,985
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -9.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Mohawk Cir	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,732 (+8%)	4mo	$430,000	$248	67
64 Garfield St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-2%)	6mo	$380,000	$240	63
19 Cheney Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,486 (-8%)	1mo	$502,000	$338	58
35 Walnut St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,732 (+8%)	2mo	$553,000	$319	58
61 Cedar St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+8%)	0mo	$435,000	$250	57
85 Florence St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,748 (+9%)	0mo	$370,000	$212	54
760 Willard Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,746 (+8%)	6mo	$340,000	$195	54
340 Robbins Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,482 (-8%)	4mo	$340,000	$229	54
40 Pine St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-14%)	0mo	$427,500	$307	49
6 Old Farm Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,808 (+12%)	1mo	$370,000	$205	47
55 Coles Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+15%)	3mo	$320,000	$173	44
17 Whiteside St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,380 (-14%)	2mo	$409,000	$296	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-74,865
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-103,722
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06111

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,190/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,160

Max offer price $315,353

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Brookdale Ave Newington, CT	3.0	1.0	1508	$2,900	$1.92	23d	1	0.16mi
92 Indian Hill Rd Newington, CT	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	43d	1	0.34mi
1435 Willard Ave Newington, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	950	$2,000	$2.11	1d	1	1.10mi
21 Monte Vista Ave Newington, CT	2.0	2.5	1068	$1,800	$1.69	43d	1	1.31mi
154 Harding Ave Newington, CT	3.0	2.0	1747	$3,000	$1.72	23d	1	1.45mi
448 Cypress Rd #448 Newington, CT	2.0	1.5	1830	$2,700	$1.48	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $349,900 Under Contract 16 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $349,900 Active 839-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   historical $349,900 839-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,839 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$6,190
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,796
• − Management: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$8,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $-341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newington School District
• NCES district ID: 0902880
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,751
• Composite: 41.37/100
• National rank: #3489
• State rank: #87 of 153 in CT

Livability — Newington

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #2143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newington, CT
• County: Hartford County · 754,208 people
• City population: 30,896
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 30,896
• Household income: $102,884
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 553.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 7% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 185.3332
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $349,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $349,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,190 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.