303 E South Mountain Ave #100 · Phoenix, AZ 85042

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 266 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition Est $129k · 34% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Family Friendly community! Double-wide Manufactured home. Freshly painted outside 2025. Ceiling fans with light installed 2023 in every room. Tyle floor though out the manufactured home installed 2022. Kitchen remodel 2022 with counter quartz, built in microwave, bathrooms remodel 2023, New blinds in windows, Arizona room tile and remodel 2021. Space to convert a 3rd bedroom. Space to park a 3rd car. This community is close to gyms, restaurants, shopping, and schools. It also offers a Large Rec Center with a community pool. It's a must-see!

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease); Land lease payment $840 monthly; Association maintains grounds; Community pool; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 1 open parking space; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame and wood frame construction; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer/Dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maxine O Bush Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,076 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 36% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.24%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,024
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 E South Mountain Ave #75	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	18mo	$125,000	$96	72
303 E South Mountain Ave Lot 6	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	21mo	$105,000	$81	70
8218 S 7th St #146	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	20mo	$66,000	$46	61
303 E South Mountain Ave #118	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	21mo	$115,900	$101	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $42,655
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $94,936
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85042

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,035	-5% $1,006	+0% $977	+5% $947	+10% $918
Rent	-10% $820	-5% $898	+0% $977	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $1,019	-0.5pp $998	base $977	+0.5pp $955	+1.0pp $932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$1,795	$1.54	2d	8	0.29mi
825 E Euclid Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1278	$2,275	$1.78	0d	35	0.35mi
11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$1,795	$1.54	2d	4	0.43mi
105 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	2d	1	0.45mi
833 Gary Ln Unit 1545771P Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$3,193	$1.78	13d	1	0.47mi
112 W Milada Dr Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,190	$1.25	2d	1	0.47mi
9204 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,549	$1.29	2d	1	0.47mi
98 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1555	$2,120	$1.36	2d	7	0.49mi
136 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	2d	1	0.49mi
120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	938	$1,345	$1.43	2d	3	0.51mi
207 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$2,205	$1.67	2d	1	0.51mi
7850 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1780	$2,195	$1.23	2d	4	0.52mi
922 E Gary Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,099	$1.37	2d	1	0.56mi
1106 E Gwen St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,900	$1.17	9d	1	0.62mi
2 E Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1703	$2,300	$1.35	2d	1	0.67mi
8107 S 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,140	$1.32	2d	1	0.70mi
9700 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1348	$1,895	$1.41	2d	5	0.75mi
300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,445	$1.58	2d	1	0.80mi
8402 S 15th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,050	$1.60	2d	1	1.12mi
6821 S Montezuma St Phoenix, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1469	$1,845	$1.26	2d	11	1.12mi
6631 S 7th St Unit 10 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,395	$1.50	2d	1	1.21mi
7503 S 12th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,200	$1.31	2d	1	1.23mi
6519 S 5th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,150	$1.26	25d	1	1.24mi
819 E Apollo Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	12d	1	1.25mi
6909 S 7th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	4.0	1584	$1,620	$1.02	2d	1	1.28mi
916 W Carter Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,199	$1.63	15d	1	1.29mi
828 E Apollo Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5	1726	$2,295	$1.33	2d	4	1.31mi
1417 E Irwin Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,980	$1.41	12d	1	1.40mi
1417 E Irwin Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,985	$1.41	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 258 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $85,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $95,000
17. 2026-03-17
    price $100,000
18. 2026-02-17
    price $103,000
19. 2025-12-04
    price $108,000
20. 2025-09-28
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $11,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,645
• After-tax cash flow: $9,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates and improvements, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — fresh paint improves curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — fresh paint improves curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,903
• Household income: $88,717
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 29% White 25% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.03%
• Current HPI: 318.0601
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.00%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $103,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $108,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $110,000 ARMLS