Fairview Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$392,990

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

The Courtyard Collection | The Fairview | 2,054 Sq. Ft. | Three Story | 3 Bedrooms | 3.5 Baths | Study | 2-car Garage + extra storage| 1st Floor Covered Patio | 2nd Floor Covered Balcony | Split Level

Key facts

• Split level
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 10 days

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO
• 2ND FLOOR COVERED BALCONY
• SPLIT LEVEL

🏗️ New construction. The $392,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $393k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $393k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $392,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.71%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,259
• List price: $392,990
• Delta: 12.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1306 Shaded Rock Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (-0%)	2mo	$365,915	$179	80
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-7%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	78
1304 Shaded Rock Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-4%)	4mo	$365,915	$185	77
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-4%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	76
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-9%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	75
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-7%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	74
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-10%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	73
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,835 (-11%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	71
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0	2,033 (-1%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	71
1318 Shaded Rock Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-10%)	4mo	$344,990	$188	68
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-10%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	68
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (-4%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,764
• Equity at exit: $73,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $48,662
• Equity at exit: $67,847

Cash invested: $97,793 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$874
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,055

Max offer price $349,259

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,114	-5% $993	+0% $873	+5% $752	+10% $631
Rent	-10% $544	-5% $708	+0% $873	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,201
Rate	-1.0pp $1,049	-0.5pp $962	base $873	+0.5pp $782	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,315
• Closing costs: $10,478
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.60mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.67mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $392,990 Active 200-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,564
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,994
• − Management: −$3,994
• − Depreciation: −$10,160
• Taxable income: $5,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $9,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home has average exterior and interior conditions, with some minor repairs needed. Painting and updating the exterior siding would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Brick foundation — Some discoloration and wear
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration and wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding can significantly enhance the home's appearance and value
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Brick foundation · Some discoloration and wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration and wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding can significantly enhance the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B