933 Cr 2131 · South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1980 1.15 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Peaceful Country Living with Room to Make It Your Own Welcome to quiet East Texas living! This property offers the perfect opportunity for a homeowner looking for space, privacy, and the ability to personalize a home to fit their lifestyle. Nestled in a serene rural setting, you’ll enjoy the calm surroundings, open space, and slower pace that Burkeville has to offer. The home sits on a generous lot with plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply relaxing and enjoying the fresh air. With a little vision and personal touch, this property can truly become your ideal home or weekend retreat. Whether you're looking to escape the city, settle into a peaceful environment,

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Great potential
• Serene rural setting

Tags

• SERENE RURAL SETTING
• GENEROUS LOT
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
• GREAT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Lot includes other features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($291/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,040 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $63,671
• Equity at exit: $111,009

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $184,015
• Equity at exit: $225,015

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,818/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $64	+0% $24	+5% $-15	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-28	+0% $24	+5% $77	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $60	base $24	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $159,900 849-char remark
19. 2026-05-11
    listed $179,900 Active 849-char remark
20. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,818
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$483
• After-tax cash flow: $774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,818 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.