1954 Jasper Bend Rd · Burnside, KY 42519

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2008 0.30 ac lot $241/sqft · 38% above area Est $130k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Getaway in the Jasper Bend Community - Near Lake Cumberland! Welcome to 1954 Jasper Bend Road, where relaxation and outdoor adventure meet. This charming 859 sq. ft. home is nestled within the scenic Daniel Boone National Forest offering the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and lake-life convenience. Located in the desirable Jasper Bend lake community, you'll enjoy easy walking access to a boat ramp on beautiful Lake Cumberland making this an ideal retreat for boating, fishing, and weekend escapes. Inside, the home features a comfortable one-bedroom, one-bath layout with an open-concept kitchen and living room, creating an inviting and functional living space. A spacious 36.4' x 7.2' sunroom/utility room adds valuable extra living area—perfect for relaxing after a day on the water. Step outside to the 20' x 8' covered porch, an ideal spot to enjoy peaceful mornings or unwind in the evenings surrounded by the beauty of the forest. A 24.4' x 30.3' carport with a 11' x 11' canopy also stays with the property. The Jasper Bend community also offers a playground and picnic area, perfect for family gatherings and outdoor fun. Plus, residents can ride side-by-sides throughout the community roads, making it easy to explore and enjoy the neighborhood. Whether you're looking for a lake getaway, vacation rental opportunity, or a peaceful full-time retreat, this property offers an affordable slice of paradise near Lake Cumberland.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Sunroom utility room
• Lake getaway

Tags

• LAKE GETAWAY
• JASPER BEND COMMUNITY
• BOAT RAMP
• DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST
• SUNROOM UTILITY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($556/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,013
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 6.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $36,545
• Equity at exit: $80,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $107,285
• Equity at exit: $140,140

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    listed $149,000 Active 1459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

    Lake Getaway in the Jasper Bend Community - Near Lake Cumberland! Welcome to 1954 Jasper Bend Road, where relaxation and outdoor adventure meet. This charming 859 sq. ft. home is nestled within the scenic Daniel Boone National Forest offering the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and lake-life convenience. Located in the desirable Jasper Bend lake community, you'll enjoy easy walking access to a boat ramp on beautiful Lake Cumberland making this an ideal retreat for boating, fishing, and weekend escapes. Inside, the home features a comfortable one-bedroom, one-bath layout with an open-concept kitchen and living room, creating an inviting and functional living space. A spacious 36.4' x 7.2' sunroom/utility room adds valuable extra living area—perfect for relaxing after a day on the water. Step outside to the 20' x 8' covered porch, an ideal spot to enjoy peaceful mornings or unwind in the evenings surrounded by the beauty of the forest. A 24.4' x 30.3' carport with a 11' x 11' canopy also stays with the property. The Jasper Bend community also offers a playground and picnic area, perfect for family gatherings and outdoor fun. Plus, residents can ride side-by-sides throughout the community roads, making it easy to explore and enjoy the neighborhood. Whether you're looking for a lake getaway, vacation rental opportunity, or a peaceful full-time retreat, this property offers an affordable slice of paradise near Lake Cumberland.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $149,000 ImagineMLS