209 S Saint Cloud Ave · Valrico, FL 33594

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1953 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Incredible opportunity on nearly one acre in Valrico! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a spacious 0.92-acre fenced lot is ready for your vision. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity and create their dream home. The property features 1,568 SF of living space, a large detached garage perfect for a workshop, storage, or hobbies, and an oversized lot with endless possibilities. Located in an unincorporated area of Hillsborough County with RSC-6 zoning, this property offers flexibility and room to grow. No HOA and no CDD fees. Flood Zone X — no flood insurance required. Built in 1953 with a slab foundation, the home si

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($101/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buckhorn Elementary School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 759 students, 47% FRL); Mulrennan Middle School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,185 students, 47% FRL); Durant High School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,589 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $225k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,207 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,529
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,466
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33594

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$371 /mo · $4,448/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $72	+0% $8	+5% $-55	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-74	+0% $8	+5% $91	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $66	base $8	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Woodknoll Pl Valrico, FL	2.0	1.5	1315	$2,000	$1.52	19d	1	0.20mi
2947 Royal Tuscan Ln Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,250	$1.43	0d	1	0.42mi
3406 Palm Beach Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,855	$1.46	0d	1	0.58mi
228 Draw Bridge Ln Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,816	$1.29	1d	1	0.60mi
3324 Spy Tower Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,795	$1.27	18d	1	0.66mi
3338 Spy Tower Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,823	$1.29	26d	1	0.67mi
452 Westchester Hills Ln Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$2,350	$1.10	0d	1	0.70mi
3419 Dragon View Ct Valrico, FL	2.0	2.5	1560	$1,775	$1.14	26d	1	0.73mi
3425 Dragon View Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,750	$1.24	26d	1	0.74mi
545 Summer Sails Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,995	$1.50	26d	1	0.76mi
904 Citrone Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$2,795	$1.28	16d	1	0.79mi
3510 Petticoat Jct Valrico, FL	2.0	2.0	1595	$1,650	$1.03	26d	1	0.82mi
918 Grand Canyon Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,200	$1.65	26d	1	0.92mi
1102 Lumsden Trace Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,306	$1.27	26d	1	0.94mi
840 Rocky Mountain Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1847	$2,350	$1.27	1d	1	0.94mi
919 Grand Canyon Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	6d	1	0.94mi
727 Somerstone Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,300	$1.60	26d	1	0.97mi
420 Silver Hill Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,010	$1.57	19d	1	0.99mi
2108 Jelane Dr Valrico, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	26d	1	1.01mi
4408 Horseshoe Pick Ln Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,210	$1.61	0d	1	1.04mi
207 English Channel Pl Dover, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,079	$1.34	6d	1	1.08mi
2005 Paladin Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,800	$1.45	16d	1	1.12mi
1263 Piney Branch Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,800	$1.37	16d	1	1.12mi
1209 Hawley Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,265	$1.60	0d	1	1.19mi
316 Crayford Pl Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,131	$1.48	6d	1	1.27mi
4617 Newbourne Way Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	6d	1	1.30mi
4906 Copper Canyon Blvd Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,105	$1.47	19d	1	1.39mi
1707 Tallowtree Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,220	$1.37	1d	1	1.42mi
519 Sonoma Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,995	$1.27	26d	1	1.43mi
416 Sangria Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,335	$1.59	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $225,000
2. 2026-05-20
   historical
3. 2004-04-06
   soldstatus $129,500
4. 1997-03-26
   soldstatus $76,000
5. 1981-06-01
   soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,448 · $371/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,448 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,448
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,361
• Household income: $96,628
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.31%
• Current HPI: 317.0404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+492.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records
• 1997-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,448 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.