1616 Ceasar Rd · Picayune, MS 39426

$111,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1998 2.40 ac lot $51/sqft · 69% below area Est $193k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover country living on 2.4 peaceful, tree-lined acres, this property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with an open floor plan and covered front and back porches--only minimal repairs needed to make it your own. A second site-built home in need of repair offers great renovation potential, while a third structure with a 4-bay garage provides ample storage or workshop space, all surrounded by majestic oaks in a quiet, secluded setting.

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Open floor plan
• Covered back porches

Tags

• TREE-LINED ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• COVERED BACK PORCHES
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WORKSHOP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Pearl River County School District (rural): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #35 of 130 in MS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,340 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,681
• List price: $111,000
• Delta: -42.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 N Caesar Oaks Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (-6%)	23mo	$386,900	$192	36
5 South Caesar Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-7%)	23mo	$420,000	$210	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,302
• Equity at exit: $16,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $16,157
• Equity at exit: $9,597

Cash invested: $31,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39426

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,144/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $111,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $261	+0% $230	+5% $198	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $178	+0% $230	+5% $282	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $258	base $230	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,750
• Closing costs: $3,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $111,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $111,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $111,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $111,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $111,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $111,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $111,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $111,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $111,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $111,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $111,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $111,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $122,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $122,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Discover country living on 2.4 peaceful, tree-lined acres, this property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with an open floor plan and covered front and back porches--only minimal repairs needed to make it your own. A second site-built home in need of repair offers great renovation potential, while a third structure with a 4-bay garage provides ample storage or workshop space, all surrounded by majestic oaks in a quiet, secluded setting.

18. 2026-04-29
    price $135,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Discover country living on 2.4 peaceful, tree-lined acres, this property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with an open floor plan and covered front and back porches--only minimal repairs needed to make it your own. A second site-built home in need of repair offers great renovation potential, while a third structure with a 4-bay garage provides ample storage or workshop space, all surrounded by majestic oaks in a quiet, secluded setting.

19. 2026-03-24
    price $143,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Discover country living on 2.4 peaceful, tree-lined acres, this property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with an open floor plan and covered front and back porches--only minimal repairs needed to make it your own. A second site-built home in need of repair offers great renovation potential, while a third structure with a 4-bay garage provides ample storage or workshop space, all surrounded by majestic oaks in a quiet, secluded setting.

20. 2026-03-23
    listed $148,000 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Discover country living on 2.4 peaceful, tree-lined acres, this property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with an open floor plan and covered front and back porches--only minimal repairs needed to make it your own. A second site-built home in need of repair offers great renovation potential, while a third structure with a 4-bay garage provides ample storage or workshop space, all surrounded by majestic oaks in a quiet, secluded setting.

21. 2025-12-24
    historical
22. 2025-12-01
    price $81,900
23. 2025-10-24
    price $86,200
24. 2025-09-19
    price $90,700
25. 2025-08-19
    listed $95,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,218
• − Property taxes: −$2,144
• − Insurance: −$555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,229
• Taxable income: $1,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$260
• After-tax cash flow: $2,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl River County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803540
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4931
• State rank: #35 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,555

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.24%
• Current HPI: 158.3694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $122,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $143,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Listed $148,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $81,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $86,200 MLSU
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $90,700 MLSU
• 2025-08-19 Listed $95,400 MLSU

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,144 · +55.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.