1302 W Ajo Way #149 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 600 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2024 Good condition $69/sqft · 36% below area Est $155k · 36% under $675/mo HOA · 56% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.7

Listing remarks MLS

* ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,500/MO * Beautifully remodeled 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home is brand new inside, with top of the line fixtures, and features you won't find in other homes of this price point. Full new appliance package, new cabinets and countertops, new bathroom vanity, new air conditioning/heater 2024, large deck and covered parking, and much more! Truly a rare find, come tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

Key facts

• New air conditioning
• Large deck
• Remodeled

Tags

• REMODELED
• FULL APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING
• LARGE DECK
• COVERED PARKING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$155,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (60.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (60.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gale Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #438 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 335 students, 54% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 312 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 600 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 56% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,933 (60.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 600 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.78%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -35.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #63	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	5mo	$160,000	$106	52
2920 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 1	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	11mo	$350,000	$233	50
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #44	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	22mo	$151,000	$100	39
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #11	0.81mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+17%)	6mo	$150,000	$89	35
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #81	0.82mi	3/1.5	1,365 (-5%)	24mo	$50,000	$37	34
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #106	0.82mi	3/3.0	1,188 (-18%)	6mo	$76,200	$64	31
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #71	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-14%)	22mo	$122,795	$99	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -60.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-45,437
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.02×
• Total profit: $-84,552
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,500 ($63/sqft)
• Median days on market: 263 d
• This list price: 92% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +72.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$675
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $39,933

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-380	+0% $-414	+5% $-449	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-462	+0% $-414	+5% $-367	+10% $-319
Rate	-1.0pp $-364	-0.5pp $-389	base $-414	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 S Kostka Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,795	$1.14	28d	1	0.27mi
1655 W Ajo Way Unit 453 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	20d	1	0.39mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	63d	1	0.51mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	93d	1	0.58mi
3311 S Placita Saltillo Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,295	$1.37	17d	1	0.68mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	93d	1	0.86mi
3528 S Mission Rd #2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	35d	1	0.89mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,410	$2.13	15d	17	0.92mi
3480 S Clark Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	16d	1	0.97mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	61d	1	1.00mi
631 W 40th St Unit 637 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	890	$995	$1.12	30d	1	1.02mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	41d	1	1.08mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	52d	1	1.10mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	93d	1	1.10mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,375	$2.22	28d	15	1.13mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	93d	1	1.13mi
4209 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,535	$0.95	20d	1	1.14mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	16d	1	1.18mi
1846 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	30d	1	1.18mi
1866 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,500	$1.45	39d	1	1.21mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	28d	1	1.28mi
108 W Palmdale St Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	70d	1	1.31mi
2012 W Dozemary Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,650	$1.11	17d	1	1.33mi
102 W District St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1587	$1,395	$0.88	28d	1	1.34mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	33d	1	1.38mi
718 W Louisiana St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	968	$1,450	$1.50	47d	1	1.46mi
4501 S 7th Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,550	$1.46	20d	1	1.48mi
5133 S Lavender Hills Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,710	$1.13	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 600 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 599 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 598 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $99,900 Active 597 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 596 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 595 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 592 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 591 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 590 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 589 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 587 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 585 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $99,900 Active 584 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 583 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 582 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $99,900 Active 581 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 579 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 578 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 577 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 576 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,900 Active 575 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 574 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 573 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,900 Active 572 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,900 Active 571 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 570 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 568 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,900 Active 567 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 566 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 564 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 563 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 562 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 561 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 560 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 559 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 558 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 557 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $99,900 Active 555 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 553 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 552 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 549 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,900 Active 548 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 547 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 546 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 544 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $99,900 Active 541 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 540 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 539 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 538 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 535 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$6,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Desert Pueblo Estates is move-in ready and offers top-of-the-line fixtures and features. The home is in excellent condition with new appliances, cabinets, countertops, and flooring, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value for both resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gale Elementary School F AZ #438/1,109 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $99,900 Zillow
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $100,000 Zillow
• 2024-12-17 Listed $89,900 Zillow