32244 Emancipation Cir · Loxley, AL 36527

$241,400

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,437 sqft · Townhouse · 50 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Palm, our brand-new townhome in Franklin Place at Independence in Spanish Fort, Alabama. This gorgeous townhome has so much to offer featuring open spaces and a wonderful layout. This home is a 2 stories with 1,437 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 1-car garage. Step into the Palm where you will be greeted with an entryway into the modern, open concept with gorgeous features. The stairway will be to one side opposite of the garage. You will then pass the convenient hallway bathroom across from the beautiful kitchen which seamlessly blends into the dining and living room. The living room also flows into the back patio, making an ideal place for entertaining or unwin

Key facts

• Open concept
• Multiple lakes
• Community pools

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• BACK PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM UPSTAIRS
• COMMUNITY POOLS
• MULTIPLE LAKES

🏗️ New construction. The $241,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,416.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $194,425 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32248 Emancipation Cir	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	1mo	$249,875	$174	99
32228 Emancipation Cir	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	1mo	$245,000	$170	99
32231 Emancipation Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	2mo	$236,000	$164	98
32239 Emancipation Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$241,375	$168	97
32235 Emancipation Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$240,900	$168	97
32243 Emancipation Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$245,900	$171	97
32227 Emancipation Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$240,900	$168	96
32195 Emancipation Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$231,900	$161	95
32207 Emancipation Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$240,900	$168	95
32207 Emancipation Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	5mo	$240,900	$168	94
32203 Emancipation Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	7mo	$229,900	$160	92
12764 Philadelphia Blvd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,437 (0%)	7mo	$222,000	$154	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-40,395
• Equity at exit: $35,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,463
• Equity at exit: $20,873

Cash invested: $67,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,266
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,621/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $222,255

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,354
• Closing costs: $7,242
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.04mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.52mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	21d	1	0.63mi
33064 Stables Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	2.0	2.0	1185	$1,600	$1.35	13d	1	1.13mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Daphne, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$1,974	$1.70	43d	1	1.14mi
12914 Churchill Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,680	$1.05	21d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   price $241,400
4. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-09
   listed $240,900 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,621
• − Insurance: −$1,207
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$7,023
• Taxable loss: −$5,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $241,400 BCAR
• 2026-03-10 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $240,900 BCAR