2640 Tates Creek Rd · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40475

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1956 1.00 ac lot $138/sqft · 14% above area Est $124k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a full acre just outside Richmond. The real highlight of this property is the outdoor space — with plenty of room for gardening, animals, recreation, or simply enjoying the quiet setting. The large lot offers endless possibilities while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and schools. Currently used as a rental property, this home also offers great potential for investors or buyers looking for space to spread out and make it their own.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Quiet setting
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• LARGE LOT
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: House; One story
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Brick veneer exterior; Rural view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Hall Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #82 of 676 statewide, top 13%, 379 students, 57% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 670 students, 49% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 2,226 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $150k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,898
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 21.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2584 Tates Creek Road Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	8mo	$75,000	$67	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,937
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,584
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40475

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $225	+0% $183	+5% $140	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $125	+0% $183	+5% $241	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $221	base $183	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 544-char remark
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $150,000 Active 544-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    historical
19. 2025-08-12
    listed $168,000 Active
20. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus $62,500
21. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$52/mo · 95.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $2,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 93,568 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,961
• Household income: $63,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.04%
• Current HPI: 245.8489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+140.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $168,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $660 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.