189 Chinkapin Rill · Fenton, MI 48430

$62,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Other · 334 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $43/sqft · 80% below area $540/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained manufactured home located in a desirable community just minutes from shopping and entertainment. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious family room - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a premium corner lot, the property also includes a convenient storage shed. Numerous updates provide peace of mind, including a new front door (2021), water heater (2021), furnace (2012), roof (2017), A/C unit (2017), and dishwasher (2022). An excellent opportunity for affordable living! Buyer must apply for and be approved by park management.

Key facts

• Water heater
• Replaced roof
• New front door

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SHED FOR OUTDOOR STUFF
• NEW FRONT DOOR
• WATER HEATER
• FURNACE
• REPLACED ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.0% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $54,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.35%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,293
• List price: $62,000
• Delta: -80.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $19,373
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $53,670
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$540
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 Arbor Dr Fenton, MI	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,749	$2.29	1d	1	1.21mi
3200 Foley Glen Dr Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$1,828	$1.61	1d	5	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $540 · $6,480/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,000 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $62,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $62,000 Active 320 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,000 Active 318 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,000 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,000 Active 316 DOM
13. 2025-12-13
    price $62,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Well-maintained manufactured home located in a desirable community just minutes from shopping and entertainment. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious family room - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a premium corner lot, the property also includes a convenient storage shed. Numerous updates provide peace of mind, including a new front door (2021), water heater (2021), furnace (2012), roof (2017), A/C unit (2017), and dishwasher (2022). An excellent opportunity for affordable living! Buyer must apply for and be approved by park management.

14. 2025-12-12
    price $62,000 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Well-maintained manufactured home located in a desirable community just minutes from shopping and entertainment. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a premium corner lot, the property also includes a convenient storage shed. Numerous updates provide peace of mind, including a new front door (2021), water heater (2021), furnace (2012), roof (2017), A/C unit (2017), and dishwasher (2022). An excellent opportunity for affordable living! Buyer must apply for and be approved by park management.

15. 2025-07-19
    listed $69,900 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Well-maintained manufactured home located in a desirable community just minutes from shopping and entertainment. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a premium corner lot, the property also includes a convenient storage shed. Numerous updates provide peace of mind, including a new front door (2021), water heater (2021), furnace (2012), roof (2017), A/C unit (2017), and dishwasher (2022). An excellent opportunity for affordable living! Buyer must apply for and be approved by park management.

16. 2025-07-18
    listed $69,900 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Well-maintained manufactured home located in a desirable community just minutes from shopping and entertainment. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious family room - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a premium corner lot, the property also includes a convenient storage shed. Numerous updates provide peace of mind, including a new front door (2021), water heater (2021), furnace (2012), roof (2017), A/C unit (2017), and dishwasher (2022). An excellent opportunity for affordable living! Buyer must apply for and be approved by park management.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − HOA: −$6,480
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $5,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of updates and potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fenton, MI
• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $62,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $62,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-19 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-18 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $27 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.