21684 Brixham Run Loop · Estero, FL 33928

$635,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2002 7,048 sqft lot Est $529k · 20% over $232/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO THIS ACCEPTIONAL OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A BEAUTIFULLY REMODELED POOL HOME in ONE OF ESTERO'S MOST HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER GOLF COMMUNITIES STONEYBROOK! Ideally located just one mile from I-75, this residence offers unmatched convenience near Miromar Outlets, Hertz Arena, RSW Airport, and Koreshan State Park, while delivering the privacy and lifestyle today’s buyers desire. This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home features over $100,000 in upgrades! Blending modern design with functional living. Step inside to a bright, 2 story layout showcasing laminate flooring, fresh finishes, and thoughtfully updated interiors throughout. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinetry, grani

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Remodeled pool home
• Newer air handler

Tags

• REMODELED POOL HOME
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN POOL
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AIR HANDLER
• REMODELED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• PICKLEBALL AND TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On-site management; Community size of approximately 1,100 units
• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call); maximum 2 pets
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association management, cable TV, internet, legal/accounting, recreation facilities, street lights and security included; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, bocce court and golf course; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking
• Security: Gated with guard; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available; Reclaimed water irrigation
• Home design: 2 stories; Resale; South facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lanai; Screened porch; Porch; Shutters (manual); Gated with guard; Smoke detector(s); Private road; Private maintained road; Paved road; Rectangular lot; North exposure; South facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Upper-level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Dual sinks; Separate shower; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Bathtub; Separate/formal dining room; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Separate shower; Upper-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; High speed internet; Double hung windows; Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $635k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $614k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $559k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,142/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $368k; list at $635k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $558,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $528,868
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11451 Pembrook Run	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,528 (+4%)	1mo	$550,000	$218	75
21661 Windham Run	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,704 (+12%)	23mo	$570,000	$211	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-82,830
• Equity at exit: $94,681

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-92,640
• Equity at exit: $54,903

Cash invested: $177,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,330
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,133/yr
• Insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,290
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,385

Max offer price $635,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $957	-5% $777	+0% $597	+5% $418	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $355	+0% $597	+5% $840	+10% $1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $759	base $597	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $158,750
• Closing costs: $19,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11533 Woodmount Ln Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2664	$6,500	$2.44	24d	1	0.04mi
21489 Sheridan Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$10,000	$6.08	24d	1	0.43mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.57mi
21301 S Branch Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1510	$4,670	$3.09	2d	12	1.06mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	24d	1	1.14mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	24d	1	1.22mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	24d	1	1.36mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	17d	1	1.37mi
9923 Springlake Cir Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2541	$3,350	$1.32	24d	1	1.42mi
10257 South Silver Palm Dr Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2918	$3,500	$1.20	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $635,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $635,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $635,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $635,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $635,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $635,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $635,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $635,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $635,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $635,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-03-20
    price $635,000
12. 2026-01-22
    listed $655,000 Active
13. 2025-10-27
    listed $674,900 Active
14. 2019-05-30
    soldstatus $367,500
15. 2019-04-25
    historical
16. 2019-04-16
    listed $377,000 Active
17. 2019-04-10
    historical
18. 2019-03-22
    price $384,900
19. 2019-01-28
    price $389,900
20. 2019-01-16
    listed $399,900 Active
21. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus $315,000
22. 2018-10-12
    soldstatus $315,000 Sold
23. 2018-09-22
    status Pending
24. 2018-09-12
    status Pending With Contingencies
25. 2018-09-08
    price $338,000
26. 2018-06-24
    listed $348,000 Active
27. 2004-09-17
    soldstatus $330,000
28. 2004-09-15
    soldstatus $330,000
29. 2004-08-12
    price $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,133 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,270 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$11/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,570
• − Property taxes: −$5,133
• − Insurance: −$3,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,896
• − Management: −$5,896
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$18,473
• Taxable loss: −$3,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $7,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $635,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $655,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $674,900 BEARMLS
• 2019-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $367,500 Public Records
• 2019-04-25 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2019-04-16 Listed $377,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-04-10 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2019-03-22 Price Changed $384,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-01-28 Price Changed $389,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-01-16 Listed $399,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) $315,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-09-22 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-09-12 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-09-08 Price Changed $338,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-06-24 Listed $348,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2004-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-15 Sold (MLS) $330,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-08-12 Price Changed $350,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,133 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.