1515 Barkwood Ln · Alafaya, FL 32828

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0

Listing remarks

Recently updated and move-in ready 1,700sq ft mobile home near UCF. Spacious layout with 2 parking spaces, private outdoor area, and extra storage space. Enjoy community amenities including 2 pools and 2 clubhouses, conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Great opportunity for affordable living or investment potential.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Extra storage space
• 2 clubhouses

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR AREA
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• 2 POOLS
• 2 CLUBHOUSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Directions: GPS
• Financial info: Land lease: $820
• HOA & community: Buyer approval required for the community; Community clubhouse; On-site fitness center; Community park; Playground; Community pool; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 320 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $321 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $-363 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.26%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.37% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $70,011
• Equity at exit: $26,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $154,333
• Equity at exit: $30,981

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32828

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $1,253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1911 Colonial Woods Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,100	$1.42	23d	1	0.31mi
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,973	$2.12	1d	43	0.40mi
1705 Circe Lake Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,100	$1.73	23d	1	0.77mi
14630 Lady Victoria Blvd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,695	$1.36	1d	1	0.80mi
13645 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,235	$2.61	2d	10	0.88mi
12949 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,100	$1.61	7d	1	0.89mi
12912 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1392	$2,399	$1.72	4d	1	0.95mi
13087 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,350	$2.05	23d	1	0.97mi
500 Lakescape Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,400	$1.44	20d	1	1.08mi
15634 Perdido Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,450	$1.45	17d	1	1.08mi
12000 Bryonia Rd Alafaya, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,570	$2.62	1d	14	1.35mi
2645 Talladega Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$2,281	$1.85	14d	1	1.35mi
1700 Woodbury Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,009	$2.01	3d	7	1.42mi
2219 Justin Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	17d	1	1.44mi
14050 Ithaca Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,115	$1.72	7d	1	1.47mi
1301 Waterford Oak Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,069	$2.18	1d	14	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $14,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,436
• After-tax cash flow: $11,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently updated mobile home is move-in ready with a good condition score and a good rehab level. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring, but could benefit from landscaping and curb appeal improvements to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and can increase its value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers or renters.
• Both Adding curb appeal features — Features like a front porch, landscaping, and a well-maintained exterior can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and can increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding curb appeal features — Features like a front porch, landscaping, and a well-maintained exterior can increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 69,202
• Household income: $101,767
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2213.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 23% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Current HPI: 284.5182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid