3491 Route 38 · Richland, PA 16373

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1920 0.56 ac lot Est $161k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained 3 bedroom home in the quiet community of Mariasville. Nice covered front and rear porches. Blacktop driveway leads to an oversized 2 car detached garage with workbench. Modern kitchen with updated counters and pantry. Sunroom could be the dining room or sitting room. Property has a nice back yard with garden shed and is serviced by a public sewage system too. Nice walk-up attic storage over the kitchen area.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Blacktop driveway
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPDATED COUNTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Approximately 2.5 covered parking spaces (total 2.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Construction: Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#498 in PA, #4,585 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Allegheny-Clarion Valley SD (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #374 of 539 in PA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Allegheny-Clarion Valley Elem (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #883 of 1,518 statewide, top 61%, 318 students, 48% FRL); Allegheny-Clarion Valley Hs (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #334 of 437 statewide, top 77%, 265 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Venango County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Venango County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $150k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,875 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,424
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3506 Route 38	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+0%)	8mo	$161,700	$114	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,702
• Equity at exit: $76,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $78,193
• Equity at exit: $124,504

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16373

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $142,999

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $3	+0% $-39	+5% $-81	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-85	+0% $-39	+5% $7	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-1	base $-39	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 432-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegheny-Clarion Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4202310
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,289
• Composite: 32.71/100
• National rank: #5643
• State rank: #374 of 539 in PA

Livability — Richland

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #498
• US rank: #4585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,217

Population outlook (Venango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,827 people
• By 2030: 46,061 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 39,989 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 34,094 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 22,500 · -53.9%
• By 2100: 13,659 · -72.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Venango

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+41.4 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 255.323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,900 AVBREALTORS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) $99,900 AVBREALTORS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,366 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.