15405 Main Rd · Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,149,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,754 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1765 0.70 ac lot $418/sqft · 12% below area Est $1302k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a truly exceptional property that masterfully combines the timeless allure of classic architecture with the comforts of modern living. This stunning home, built in the 1800s, showcases a wealth of character, highlighted by beautifully exposed beams that infuse warmth and charm into every room. Step inside to discover a completely updated interior that harmonizes historical elegance with contemporary style. Throughout the home, classic wide plank hardwood floors create a cohesive and inviting feel, while beautifully preserved vintage details, including salvaged tiles from past renovations, pay homage to the property's rich history. The spacious living room invites you to unwind be

Key facts

• Vintage details
• Classic architecture
• Updated interior

Tags

• CLASSIC ARCHITECTURE
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• WIDE PLANK HARDWOOD FLOORS
• VINTAGE DETAILS
• SALVAGED TILES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Private garage; Garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Natural gas connected; Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Shingle siding; Frame construction; Full walkup attic; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Porch; Outbuilding; Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped; Sprinklers in front; Sprinklers in rear; Near public transit; Near shops; Near schools

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen; Open kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Forced air; Hot water heat; Radiant heat; Living room fireplace
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Beamed ceilings; Breakfast bar; Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Original details; Primary bathroom; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Dining area; Home office; Library/den
• Laundry & utility: Washer inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.08M (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $856k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $856k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.12M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $1.15M implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1765 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $855,518 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1765 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,302,132
• List price: $1,149,999
• Delta: -11.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 Wickham Ave	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,800 (+2%)	10mo	$1,205,000	$430	57
1125 Ole Jule Ln	0.55mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,500 (-9%)	5mo	$1,835,000	$734	48
1275 Gabriella Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,400 (-13%)	18mo	$999,000	$416	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-213,031
• Equity at exit: $171,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-220,824
• Equity at exit: $99,431

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$662 /mo · $7,946/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,797
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,079

Max offer price $1,076,957

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $-88	+0% $-413	+5% $-739	+10% $-1,064
Rent	-10% $-1,089	-5% $-751	+0% $-413	+5% $-76	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $-121	base $-413	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-1,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
435 Luptons Point Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2700	$6,000	$2.22	45d	1	0.62mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	45d	1	0.68mi
1600 Westview Dr Mattituck, NY	3.0	3.0	3192	$5,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,149,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,149,999 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $1,149,999 Active 1467-char remark
17. 2025-10-31
    historical
18. 2025-07-31
    status Active
19. 2025-07-31
    historical
20. 2025-06-18
    price $1,299,000
21. 2025-05-14
    price $1,329,000
22. 2025-03-20
    price $1,349,000
23. 2024-08-31
    listed $1,399,000 Active
24. 2003-11-07
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,946 · $662/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,691 · $1,141/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,744/yr (+$479/mo · 72.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $102,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$7,946
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,213
• − Management: −$8,213
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable loss: −$25,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,080
• After-tax cash flow: $1,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+219.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $1,149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $1,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $1,329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $1,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,946 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.