921 Autumn Ln #221 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set against the scenic backdrop of Lake Samish, this move-in ready double-wide in Lake Samish Terrace Park delivers something genuinely rare at this price: private waterfront access, a garage (the only one in the park) and a tucked-away location at the back of the community for added quiet and privacy. Inside the 1,120 sq ft layout, vaulted ceilings and large windows create an open, light-filled feel throughout the living and dining areas. The kitchen offers generous counter space and storage, and the primary suite includes a private bath with jetted soaking tub. Double-pane windows, updated flooring, and a recently replaced roof and gutters mean there's very little left to do. Outside, a c

Key facts

• Tucked-away location
• Covered patio
• Private lake access

Tags

• PRIVATE WATERFRONT ACCESS
• TUCKED-AWAY LOCATION
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets: see remarks; Park name: Lake Samish Terrace; High speed internet available (park amenity)
• Financial info: Land lease: $860; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA; Taxes: listed separately
• HOA & community: Senior community; Senior exemption; Park approved for sale; Community laundry; Common area; Recreational area

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage; Has garage; RV parking (park amenity)
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community water; Community sewer; Puget Sound Energy power; Cable: Comcast; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide; One story; Southwest facing; Very good condition; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Vinyl skirting; Composition roof; Tie down foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Metal/vinyl exterior; Deeded water access; Community waterfront; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Double pane windows
• Interior features: Water heater; Jetted/soaking tub; Vaulted ceilings; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room; Water heater located in laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wade King Elementary School (346 students, 24% FRL); Sehome High School (1,163 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $199k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.94%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $30,678
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $110,617
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,085	-5% $1,028	+0% $972	+5% $916	+10% $859
Rent	-10% $753	-5% $863	+0% $972	+5% $1,082	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,072	-0.5pp $1,023	base $972	+0.5pp $921	+1.0pp $868

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 W Lake Samish Dr Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,995	$2.34	13d	1	0.56mi
705 W Lake Samish Dr Unit 703A Bellingham, WA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,495	$2.23	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $199,000 Active
18. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus $85,000
19. 2007-10-11
    historical
20. 2007-06-06
    listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$857/yr (+$71/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $8,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,140
• After-tax cash flow: $9,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+65.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-11 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-06 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,094 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.