15549 Michigan 72 · Bear Lake, MI 49738

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $104/sqft · 41% below area Est $153k · 41% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home! This place is neat as a pin and ready to move into. Right on M-72 W halfway between Kalkaska and Grayling this home is located in an ideal location for anyone looking to live out of town with amenities available in either direction.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#425 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Kalkaska County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalkaska County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,111
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -41.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15905 SE Barber Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0	900 (+4%)	23mo	$142,000	$158	54
104 Tamarack Cir	0.77mi	2/1.0	864 (-0%)	48mo	$135,000	$156	44
1052 Goose Creek Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,044 (+20%)	37mo	$75,000	$72	41
15693 SE Riverview Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0	660 (-24%)	21mo	$28,000	$42	33
155 Tamarack Cir	0.85mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+27%)	4mo	$99,000	$90	32
157 Tamarack Cir	0.85mi	2/1.5	960 (+11%)	42mo	$130,000	$135	25
15604 Riverview Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+19%)	48mo	$315,000	$305	22
14476 SE Club Cir	1.88mi	2/1.0	1,125 (+30%)	47mo	$210,000	$187	20
994 Wood River Rd	0.90mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+29%)	47mo	$212,500	$190	20
15205 Riverview Rd SE	1.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+15%)	14mo	$270,000	$270	20
137 Tamarack Cir	0.89mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+29%)	33mo	$149,900	$134	15
139 Tamarack Cir	0.90mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+29%)	59mo	$149,000	$133	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-12,672
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-8,539
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 49738

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $61	+0% $30	+5% $-1	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $-3	+0% $30	+5% $62	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $53	base $30	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $90,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $90,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $90,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-07-17
    days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $90,000 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 102 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 100 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $90,000 Active 99 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 98 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 97 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $90,000 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $90,000 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$792
• − Management: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$1,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$274
• After-tax cash flow: $632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,340–$13,020 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is ready to move into and has potential for further value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more appealing to renters and improve the overall living experience. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean the HVAC system — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both resale and rental value, as it ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Grayling Elementary School F MI #547/1,397 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Grayling Middle School C MI #117/493 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Grayling High School C+ MI #80/713 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Bear Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #11571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford · 17,359 people
• Population (ZIP): 9,599
• Household income: $57,573
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Kalkaska County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,359 people
• By 2030: 17,222 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 16,643 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 15,810 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 13,772 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 10,976 · -36.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · Kalkaska

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.8% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+44.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.14%
• Current HPI: 280.922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $99,000 WWMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $115,000 WWMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $120,000 WWMLS