42 Rancho Grande Cir #42 · Atwater, CA 95310

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $113k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated Golden West double-wide home, ideally situated in one of Atwater's most desirable communitiesRancho Grande Mobile Home Park. This well-maintained Model features 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with the option to easily restore the original 3-bedroom layout. Per the prior owner, the wall between bedrooms two (2) and three (3) was removed to create one oversized room, offering flexibility to suit your needs. Step inside to an inviting eat-in kitchen offering abundant cabinetry, updated appliances, and a charming built-in bistro table. A formal dining area with a built-in china cabinet provides the perfect space for gatherings. A versatile casual dining

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Indoor laundry area
• Covered carport

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN BISTRO TABLE
• BUILT-IN CHINA CABINET
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• COVERED CARPORT
• EXPANSIVE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association with amenities: pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, fitness center, green area, playground, landscape maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured (mobile) home
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Wood subfloor foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: One-level; Covered patio/porch; Shed(s); Urban lot setting; Private in-ground pool (fenced; community access); Community spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3-bedroom manufactured home (make: Golden West Homes / GR 3BR)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; 13+ SEER air conditioning
• Interior features: Disposal; Carpet and laminate flooring; Inside laundry in a utility room; Tub/shower and separate shower options
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buhach Colony High (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,746 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.20%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,896
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Rancho Grande Cir	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$113,500	$84	100
42 Rancho Grande Cir #42	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$113,500	$84	100
66 La Playa Way	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$71	90
73 La Playa Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$90,000	$63	79
6 Rancho Grande	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$56,000	$45	76
56 Rancho Grande Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (-8%)	3mo	$80,000	$64	76
4 Rancho Grande Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	12mo	$63,000	$49	75
62 La Playa Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	24mo	$105,000	$84	67
110 Granada Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$149,900	$120	65
85 Rancho Grande Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,208 (-10%)	23mo	$110,000	$91	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,621
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $56,234
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95310

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $239/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $567	+0% $533	+5% $363	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $472	+0% $533	+5% $595	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $563	base $533	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $119,000
3. 2026-03-27
   price $121,500
4. 2026-03-05
   price $124,500
5. 2026-02-03
   price $126,500
6. 2026-01-14
   price $128,500
7. 2025-12-03
   listed $135,000 Active
8. 2025-07-14
   historical
9. 2025-06-27
   price $137,000
10. 2025-06-27
    price $137,000
11. 2025-05-29
    status Active
12. 2025-05-29
    price $140,000
13. 2025-05-27
    historical
14. 2025-05-05
    price $142,000
15. 2025-05-05
    price $142,000
16. 2025-04-22
    price $145,000
17. 2025-04-22
    price $145,000
18. 2025-04-08
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-04-08
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2025-04-06
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 2022-08-03
    historical
22. 2022-07-15
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $239 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 277.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$239
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $4,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $5,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Atwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #9893

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atwater, CA
• City population: 43,009
• Population (ZIP): 1,783

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.19%
• Current HPI: 96.2554
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $119,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $121,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $124,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $126,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $128,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $135,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $137,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $137,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-05-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $142,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $142,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $145,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $150,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-06 Listed $140,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-08-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listed $119,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2020): $239 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.