502 N Spears St · Alvarado, TX 76009

$123,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1945 3,441 sqft lot $160/sqft · 24% below area Est $162k · 24% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! 1945 A-frame farmhouse featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Small footprint with solid potential for renovation or resale. Property requires extensive repairs and is being sold AS-IS. Ideal project for flippers, investors, or contractors looking for value-add opportunity. With the right updates, this home could be transformed into a profitable rental, resale, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and tools-significant upside for the right buyer.

Key facts

• 3,441 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 153 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Alvarado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,898
• List price: $123,000
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Purdom Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	818 (+6%)	13mo	$89,900	$110	73
207 E Purdom Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	696 (-9%)	9mo	$179,900	$258	71
805 W Atchley Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	832 (+8%)	17mo	$89,000	$107	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,444
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,072
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76009

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,425/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $135	+0% $100	+5% $65	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $46	+0% $100	+5% $154	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $132	base $100	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 N Spears St Unit 102 Alvarado, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	21d	1	0.37mi
811 N Spears St Alvarado, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	16d	1	0.37mi
811 N Spears St Unit 102 Alvarado, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	2d	1	0.37mi
1109 S Spears St Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,700	$1.56	2d	1	0.88mi
310 Shirley Dr Alvarado, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,750	$1.64	13d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $123,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $123,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    price $123,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Investor special! 1945 A-frame farmhouse featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Small footprint with solid potential for renovation or resale. Property requires extensive repairs and is being sold AS-IS. Ideal project for flippers, investors, or contractors looking for value-add opportunity. With the right updates, this home could be transformed into a profitable rental, resale, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and tools-significant upside for the right buyer.

15. 2026-01-15
    listed $126,000 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Investor special! 1945 A-frame farmhouse featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Small footprint with solid potential for renovation or resale. Property requires extensive repairs and is being sold AS-IS. Ideal project for flippers, investors, or contractors looking for value-add opportunity. With the right updates, this home could be transformed into a profitable rental, resale, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and tools-significant upside for the right buyer.

16. 2002-01-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,425 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,425 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$3,425
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable loss: −$703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvarado ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800011
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,485
• Composite: 34.02/100
• National rank: #5312
• State rank: #416 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvarado

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #5544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvarado, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 22,803
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,803
• Household income: $79,755
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 251.2624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $123,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $126,000 NTREIS
• 2002-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,425 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.