254 Overlook Dr · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$1,795,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2024 9,583 sqft lot $840/sqft · 79% above area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly constructed, post-modern waterfront home offers a unique blend of elegance and functionality. With three spacious bedrooms and three full bathrooms, it's designed to provide comfort and convenience in equal measure. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the kitchen, equipped with granite countertops, a stainless-steel package and Viking range. An island featuring a Black Walnut countertop not only adds a touch of sophistication but also provides additional workspace for culinary adventures. The home's heating system is powered by propane, ensuring a warm and cozy environment during the colder months. Outside, a 15x15 pressure-treated deck and 12x47 paver patio offers an ideal spot for outdoor dining or simply enjoying the breathtaking water views. The property also features a five-zone irrigation system, and an on-site home generator. The home's exterior is further enhanced by a front portico with a distinctive copper roof, adding a touch of elegance to the overall design. What sets this property apart is the 40' deep water dock. Whether you're a boating enthusiast or simply enjoy the serenity of waterfront living, this feature is sure to appeal. This home is part of a welcoming community where luxury meets comfort and where every detail has been thoughtfully considered.

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Granite countertops
• Front portico

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BLACK WALNUT COUNTERTOP
• FIVE-ZONE IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• ON-SITE HOME GENERATOR
• FRONT PORTICO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($80k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $1.79M).
• Recommended offer: $1.69M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $192k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $180k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$308k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,687,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.03%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,060,422
• List price: $1,795,000
• Delta: 69.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,282 (+7%)	6mo	$899,000	$394	52
110 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,305 (+8%)	15mo	$975,000	$423	51
13 Harbor Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,430 (+14%)	23mo	$2,000,000	$823	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $1,405,094
• Equity at exit: $1,617,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $3,802,541
• Equity at exit: $3,487,290

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax from tax record: −$1,779 /mo · $21,350/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,070
• Net cashflow: $6,707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,654

Max offer price $1,795,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
599 Peconic Bay Blvd Jamesport, NY	3.0	4.0	3000	$29,000	$9.67	43d	1	1.15mi
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	43d	1	1.23mi
42 Pine Ave Riverhead, NY	2.0	2.0	1568	$4,100	$2.61	24d	1	1.37mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $1,795,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,849,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,849,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    listed $1,849,000 Active 1304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1304 chars)

    This newly constructed, post-modern waterfront home offers a unique blend of elegance and functionality. With three spacious bedrooms and three full bathrooms, it's designed to provide comfort and convenience in equal measure. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the kitchen, equipped with granite countertops, a stainless-steel package and Viking range. An island featuring a Black Walnut countertop not only adds a touch of sophistication but also provides additional workspace for culinary adventures. The home's heating system is powered by propane, ensuring a warm and cozy environment during the colder months. Outside, a 15x15 pressure-treated deck and 12x47 paver patio offers an ideal spot for outdoor dining or simply enjoying the breathtaking water views. The property also features a five-zone irrigation system, and an on-site home generator. The home's exterior is further enhanced by a front portico with a distinctive copper roof, adding a touch of elegance to the overall design. What sets this property apart is the 40' deep water dock. Whether you're a boating enthusiast or simply enjoy the serenity of waterfront living, this feature is sure to appeal. This home is part of a welcoming community where luxury meets comfort and where every detail has been thoughtfully considered.

15. 2025-10-02
    listed $1,855,000 Active
16. 2025-08-31
    historical
17. 2025-05-08
    listed $1,849,000 Active
18. 2024-12-20
    listed $1,999,999 Active
19. 2024-01-12
    historical
20. 2023-10-06
    listed $1,999,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $21,350 · $1,779/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,843 · $2,154/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,493/yr (+$374/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $289,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$21,350
• − Insurance: −$14,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,178
• − Management: −$23,178
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable income: $55,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,238
• After-tax cash flow: $67,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $1,849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $1,855,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Listed $1,849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-20 Listed $1,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-06 Listed $1,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,350 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.