CALI Plan · Wildwood, FL 34785

$301,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily · 351 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Quartz countertops
• Built-in dishwasher

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTED
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL RANGE
• BUILT-IN DISHWASHER
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8443 Clearway Dr, Wildwood FL 34785; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $300,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (CALI)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,828 (per listing)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan-based new construction (CALI plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $301,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,104.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,522/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 351 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,188 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 351 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4624 Connection Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$305,990	$167	94
8717 Triumph Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$168	94
4626 Parkview Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	3mo	$297,490	$163	94
8745 Triumph Cir	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	93
8725 Triumph Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$168	93
8757 Triumph Cir	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$302,990	$166	92
8761 Triumph Cir	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$310,870	$170	92
4628 Connection Rd	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (+14%)	1mo	$311,070	$150	62
9036 County Road 121	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-5%)	3mo	$475,000	$275	49
2247 Shanewood Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-9%)	1mo	$345,000	$208	49
8128 Penrose Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-12%)	2mo	$267,000	$165	48
2344 Bachman Path	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,010 (+10%)	2mo	$445,000	$221	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-58,388
• Equity at exit: $45,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-62,909
• Equity at exit: $26,553

Cash invested: $85,989 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,607/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,686

Max offer price $288,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $-24	+0% $-130	+5% $-236	+10% $-342
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-230	+0% $-130	+5% $-30	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-52	base $-130	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,776
• Closing costs: $9,213
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1693	$2,455	$1.45	21d	1	0.45mi
8073 Patagonia Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,645	$1.61	21d	1	0.46mi
5234 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1693	$2,475	$1.46	21d	1	0.48mi
8061 Patagonia Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1855	$2,585	$1.39	21d	1	0.48mi
5192 Hartwood Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,590	$1.65	21d	1	0.52mi
5255 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,410	$1.47	21d	1	0.53mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit C1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,801	$1.25	21d	1	0.54mi
8062 Rexwood Rd Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,345	$1.43	21d	1	0.57mi
2393 Carriage Hill Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$4,300	$2.64	21d	1	0.73mi
5115 Spanish Harbor Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,680	$1.70	21d	29	0.79mi
2393 Highbanks Ct The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.85mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	21d	1	0.86mi
706 Stanley Ave Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,300	$1.43	21d	1	0.86mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	21d	1	0.90mi
5339 Loblolly Ln Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.92mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	21d	1	0.92mi
5267 Dragonfly Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$1,945	$1.15	21d	1	0.92mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,384	$2.20	21d	28	1.06mi
2192 Quinn Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$5,600	$3.48	21d	1	1.07mi
8362 Gower Trl Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,695	$1.16	21d	1	1.16mi
8396 Gower Trl Unit 1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$1,795	$1.05	21d	1	1.17mi
3234 Evenmore Way Wildwood, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	21d	1	1.32mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,759	$1.76	21d	22	1.34mi
208 Mason St Wildwood, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	2250	$1,975	$0.88	21d	2	1.35mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $301,990 Active 351 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $301,990 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $301,990 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $301,990 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $301,990 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $301,990 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $301,990 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $301,990 Active 342 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,990 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $301,990 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $301,990 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,990 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,990 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,990 Active 331 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,607
• − Insurance: −$1,536
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$8,934
• Taxable loss: −$6,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,646
• After-tax cash flow: $85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B