1202 Willow Ln · League City, TX 77573

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 363 Days on market

Built 1972 10,066 sqft lot $134/sqft · 23% above area Est $147k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Welcome Home to a cute property in an absolutely amazing location! The home has been affixed to the land and features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, spacious living area, and dining area. The home is located on a huge lot with two storage units and a carport. Completely updated. No carpet. Kitchen with fresh painted cabinets, recent appliances and plenty of storage. Luxury Vinyl Tiles. Fresh paint throughout the house. Primary bedroom with large ensuite bathroom with standing shower. Low property taxes! No MUD taxes! Recent roof! Make this house yours! Call us for a private showing!

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Updated
• Carport

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• TWO STORAGE UNITS
• CARPORT
• UPDATED
• RECENT APPLIANCES
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.7% in League City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#135 in TX, #3,961 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 944 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.94%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,739
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 22.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1201 Pampas Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-6%)	10mo	$150,000	$119	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,602
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $22,522
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77573

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 944
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2019 Penwern Alley Ln League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,450	$1.52	1d	1	0.83mi
6555 Jewel Stone Ln Unit 6588 San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,467	$1.27	3d	1	1.07mi
6563 Jewel Stone Ln Dickinson, TX	4.0	3.0	1781	$2,085	$1.17	44d	1	1.10mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 2174 League City, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,532	$1.40	17d	1	1.28mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 2262 League City, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,565	$1.43	13d	1	1.28mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 2228 League City, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,607	$1.47	3d	1	1.28mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 2238 League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,975	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 3174 League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,157	$1.50	3d	1	1.28mi
2205 W Walker St Unit 424 League City, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,615	$1.48	7d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 363 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 361 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 353 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 345 DOM
15. 2025-09-29
    price $180,000 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Welcome Home to a cute property in an absolutely amazing location! The home has been affixed to the land and features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, spacious living area, and dining area. The home is located on a huge lot with two storage units and a carport. Completely updated. No carpet. Kitchen with fresh painted cabinets, recent appliances and plenty of storage. Luxury Vinyl Tiles. Fresh paint throughout the house. Primary bedroom with large ensuite bathroom with standing shower. Low property taxes! No MUD taxes! Recent roof! Make this house yours! Call us for a private showing!

16. 2025-06-20
    listed $190,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Welcome Home to a cute property in an absolutely amazing location! The home has been affixed to the land and features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, spacious living area, and dining area. The home is located on a huge lot with two storage units and a carport. Completely updated. No carpet. Kitchen with fresh painted cabinets, recent appliances and plenty of storage. Luxury Vinyl Tiles. Fresh paint throughout the house. Primary bedroom with large ensuite bathroom with standing shower. Low property taxes! No MUD taxes! Recent roof! Make this house yours! Call us for a private showing!

17. 2025-06-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Welcome Home to a cute property in an absolutely amazing location! The home has been affixed to the land and features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, spacious living area, and dining area. The home is located on a huge lot with two storage units and a carport. Completely updated. No carpet. Kitchen with fresh painted cabinets, recent appliances and plenty of storage. Luxury Vinyl Tiles. Fresh paint throughout the house. Primary bedroom with large ensuite bathroom with standing shower. Low property taxes! No MUD taxes! Recent roof! Make this house yours! Call us for a private showing!

18. 2024-03-28
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2024-03-28
    historical
20. 2023-08-31
    price $195,000
21. 2023-08-18
    historical $1,500
22. 2023-08-15
    listed $1,500
23. 2023-08-12
    price $205,000
24. 2023-07-12
    price $215,000
25. 2023-06-27
    listed $225,000 Active
26. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2022-07-21
    status Pending
28. 2022-07-16
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,898/yr (+$241/mo · 730.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $3,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$770
• After-tax cash flow: $5,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — League City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: League City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 98,109
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 98,109
• Household income: $122,722
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2226.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.70%
• Current HPI: 244.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.78%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Listed $50,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · -20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.