1604 Baron Ln · Howe, TX 75459

$219,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,358 sqft lot Est $221k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Luella Crossing - Idlewood Floorplan

Key facts

• 5,358 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Howe — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 41% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,075 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,611
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 Cole St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$232,999	$159	96
1616 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	2mo	$223,999	$153	92
1640 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$216,199	$149	92
1629 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	2mo	$219,999	$152	91
1325 Elliott Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-2%)	1mo	$258,990	$181	86
901 Cole St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+11%)	3mo	$240,949	$149	74
1317 Elliott Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+9%)	1mo	$268,490	$169	74
1504 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+11%)	2mo	$243,999	$151	72
1304 Kennedy Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+9%)	3mo	$238,990	$150	71
1301 Elliott Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+9%)	2mo	$239,000	$150	71
1625 Elliot Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	2mo	$225,399	$136	64
1808 Douglas St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (+14%)	1mo	$249,000	$149	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,982
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,562
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $205,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-24	+0% $-100	+5% $-176	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-173	+0% $-100	+5% $-27	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-44	base $-100	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1625 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.14mi
1632 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	22d	1	0.14mi
1636 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.14mi
1629 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	0.14mi
1520 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.18mi
1317 Kennedy Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	45d	1	0.22mi
1810 Clegg St Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	22d	1	0.22mi
1301 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	0.27mi
116 N Western Hills Dr Howe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,570	$1.84	0d	19	0.85mi
406 N Denny St Unit B Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	45d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $219,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-10/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $219,999 NTREIS